Moscow is to be represented at the six-way talks due to begin Wednesday in Beijing by Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov -- an Asia hand who has defended Pyongyang's position fervently against the one taken by Washington.

He insisted on a formal security guarantee from Washington -- which it has refused to give -- and pressed for one-on-one talks between the United States and North Korea over the nuclear standoff.

Both of those arguments have now fallen by the wayside and Losyukov appeared uncharacteristically downbeat on his arrival Monday in Beijing.

"Unfortunately, the chances of an agreement being reached at this stage in Beijing are very slim," Moscow's top diplomat on Asian affairs told Interfax.

"It is unlikely that at this first round (of talks), we will be able to move the negotiating process forward."

Many analysts believe that Russia will come to China not as a negotiator but a silent observer -- dragged into the talks because of its own failed diplomatic bravado.

"It is important for Russia to be represented in geopolitical terms but it is not at all clear what Russia can add to the discussion," said Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Moscow office of the US-based Center for Defense Information.

"Russia has no concrete plan" for a six-way meeting due to begin in Beijing on Wednesday, he added.

Other experts agreed with Safranchuk. And many blamed it on the Russian foreign ministry -- which some see as one of the most unreformed post-Soviet institutions in Russia.

"Kim Jong-Il is one of our men just like Saddam Hussein was in Iraq," said Andrei Piontkovsky of Moscow's Center for Strategic Studies.

"This is the pattern of our foreign ministry -- to support the old Soviet figures," he said.

Independent military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer agreed. "To be honest, Russia here is only acting as a guest. It has no influence on Washington, and certainly not on North Korea."

So where did Russia -- now an official guest at the North Korean negotiating table -- go wrong?

Some analysts see a pattern. The Russian foreign ministry stood out fervently against the US-led war on Iraq. Meanwhile President Vladimir Putin for the most part kept his silence.

A similar situation developed over North Korea. The foreign ministry almost weekly came out with statements in support of Pyuongyang's arguments. The Kremlin did not.

"I think one can say that the foreign ministry is running out from under the Kremlin's control," said Piontkovsky.

Not every one agrees with this view. But Putin for one has already been humiliated by North Korea -- which some suggest is why Russia is so uncertain going into these talks.

He met Kim for the first time in September 2000 in Pyongyang and then attending a G8 summit in Japan the Russian leader announced with some pride that North Korea had promised him that it would freeze its missile program in return for some US concessions.

Only a few hours later Kim announced that what he told Putin was a joke -- or that the Kremlin chief had simply misunderstood him. The incident came shortly after North Korea launched a long-range missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads over Japan.

Some military observers here speculate -- quoting sources from South Korean diplomats -- that the North will conduct its first atomic test next month, and thus officially announce itself as an international nuclear power.

But the same analysts say that Moscow would rather not get dragged into Washington's dispute with Pyongyang because it does not see North Korea as a threat to its own national security.

One government-linked North Korea analyst recently told AFP that Washington's nuclear standoff with North Korea "is their problem."

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