The issue of Iraq now dominates. The Middle East conflict has been pushed to the background. And small countries, like Qatar, have emerged politically while others, such as the economically powerful Saudi Arabia, have seen their influence reduced.

"These changes are not the direct result of the war in Iraq, which is itself a consequence of competition (between the big powers) for control of the strategic region, with its vast hydrocarbon reserves," said leading Kuwaiti economic analyst Jassim al-Saadun.

The changes followed the fall of the communist bloc in Europe at the end of the last century and were accentuated by the September 11, 2001 suicide attacks on the United States, in which 11 of the 19 suspected hijackers were Saudis, he told AFP.

"The message was well understood by certain small countries, including Qatar and Bahrain, and to a lesser extent by the United Arab Emiratesand Kuwait," said Saadun.

"On the other hand, others turned a deaf ear because of the structural paralysis that is the nature of their power and the weight of religion and tradition."

Saadun was referring to Saudi Arabia, whose clout has diminished amid a chill in its relations with the United States, of which it was once a main Arab ally.

Accused by Washington of "feeding terrorism", the oil-rich kingdom watched the US army headquarters in the Gulf move to Qatar which, through its democratic political process and its influential Al-Jazeera satellite channel, did not hide its regional ambitions.

Bahrain, engaged in its own democratic process, has long served as the US naval headquarters, hosting the 5th Fleet, while Kuwait, invaded by Iraq in 1990 and occupied for seven months, was the main launchpad for the war to oust Saddam Hussein.

And the UAE, from where much of the cash used by terrorists in the September 11 attacks was reportedly transferred, launched a crackdown on suspect money at the behest of Washington.

Asian and African countries also figured among the "emerging" states, such as Pakistan, which participates in the hunt for Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, or Morocco, both of which are clearly reconciled with the United States.

Yemen, which pursued "terrorists" under US pressure, chose to be in the American camp, an option recommended to other Arab regimes.

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh publicly and explicitly told the Arabs in January that "It's better to go to the barber yourself than the others coming to cut your hair."

But Arab officials, who in the past faced sharp criticism from the West for a lack of respect for human rights, have rejected, at least publicly, an American plan to encourage democratic reform in the Arab world.

Saudi Arabia, backed by Egypt and Syria, was at the forefront in rebuffing the US-proposed Greater Middle East Initiative, preferring any reform to come from within.

"The reaction by certain Arab governments is testament to their political sterility and their paralysis," the head of one Emirati research centre, Abdul Khaleq Abdullah, told AFP.

"Countries of the region are not learning the lessons of the Iraq war," he added.

But the United States, whose politics are unpopular most of all among Arab public opinion, intends to associate Europe and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) with its reform plan in order to win over reluctant Arabs.

"In this way, the change will be a Western responsibility and not only an American one," said Saadun, in reference to the US plan, which Washington wants to launch at a summit of the Group of Eight industrialised nations in June.

WAR.WIRE