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North Korea will come under more US pressure to return to dialogue and end its nuclear weapons drive as the second Bush administration will turn up the heat on the Stalinist regime, analysts say. But at the same time Washington faces increased pressure of a different kind while seeing its own options reduced by the fact that it can't afford another military gamble following the invasion of Iraq. The pressure on Washington is coming from within and outside the United States, but especially from partners in Northeast Asia, including China and South Korea, who have been taking part in multilateral talks aimed at resolving the stand-off over North Korea's nuclear ambitions. They want Bush to show more flexibility and to deal directly with North Korea in substantive talks. Many leaders in the region were impressed with Democrat candidate John Kerry's comment that the nuclear confrontation had been allowed to deteriorate during the first Bush administration as North Korea turned plutonium frozen under a now-defunct 1994 accord to military use, the analysts said. Unless Bush shows a willingness to engage with North Korea, the standoff could deteriorate even further under a second Bush administration. "I expect some flexibility (in the US policy toward Pyongyang) because the Bush administration cannot afford to allow this situation in Northeast Asia to become more tense or to threaten a military action," said Edward Reed, the Seoul-based representative of the Asia Foundation. "With the situation in the Middle East, there is no way they (the US government) can afford that." Pyongyang failed to turn up for a fourth round of six-nation talks scheduled for September, citing recently revealed, laboratory-scale South Korean nuclear experiments in 1982 and 2000, and Washington's "hostile policy". Pyongyang had also been keen to await the outcome of the November 2 US presidential poll, before announcing its position on future talks. Yun Duk-Min, a nuclear arms control expert, said Bush would now push harder for an early settlement of the nuclear row following criticism that he had stalled for too long in relation to the North Korean threat. "If North Korea keeps refusing to abandon its nuclear programme, Bush would shift to a 'Plan B' focusing on heaping multi-pronged pressure on Pyongyang," said Yun at the state-run Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. This plan includes the enforcement of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a US-led international programme aimed to improve global coordination to intercept weapons shipments by rogue states and terrorist groups. Ships and nearly 900 troops from 19 countries including the United States, France, Australia and host Japan held a drill in waters off Tokyo last week, triggering angry reactions from Pyongyang. Referring to the United Nations Security Council for possible sanctions and raising the issue of the human rights situation in the Stalinist country would also being considered, Yun said. Researcher Paik Hak-soon at the private Sejong Institute said a frustrated North Korea would respond to the added pressure by speeding up its efforts to arm itself with nuclear weapons. "Bush will turn on Pyongyang with a vengeance and North Korea will see no alternative but to arm itself with nuclear weapons," Paik said. The confrontation began in October 2002 when US officials said North Korea had admitted in a bilateral meeting to pursuing a covert uranium-enrichment program. North Korea has since denied the charge but boast that it has produced nuclear weapons using a plutonium-based nuclear arms program, mothballed in 1994, but reopened following the October confrontation. Pyongyang has demanded food and energy aid and diplomatic concessions in return for refreezing the plutonium program. All rights reserved. © 2005 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.
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