UN nuclear chief Mohamed ElBaradei, who has said the North Koreans already have six nuclear bombs, warned just under a month ago that a nuclear test by the North would have "disastrous" political and environmental consequences in Asia and around the world.

ElBaradei, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), also said recently that he found the failure of a month-long UN non-proliferation conference in May to adopt new measures to fight the spread of nuclear weapons "distressing".

The treaty, which entered into force in 1970, is aimed at limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons but is under the threat of becoming obsolete in a world much changed, particularly following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

The IAEA is pushing for a more beefed-up Non-Proliferation Treaty including, among other things, punishment to prevent states from failing to abide by it -- as North Korea did at the start of 2003 when it expelled UN inspectors and re-started a mothballed nuclear reactor.

The agency has also proposed making it easier to supply fuel to countries wanting to produce nuclear power.

A Western diplomat close to the IAEA in Vienna says a test by North Korea would be a "major failure for the NPT".

The diplomat, who asked to remain anonymous, said such a test would give other countries the message that it was better to have the bomb in order to avoid the fate of Iraq, which was invaded under the suspicion of having weapons of mass destruction.

"Another scenario is that South Korea gets nervous and moves towards a nuclear program, that Japan gets nervous and does the same, followed by other countries," he told AFP.

But the optimistic scenario of the fallout from a North Korean nuclear test was that it would set off alarm bells in the international community and reinforce the fight against proliferation.

Despite its limits, however, the Non-Proliferation Treaty was "the most effective treaty in history", says George Perkovich, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Of the 188 state signatories, only five have such weapons: the United States and Russia (the former Soviet Union), plus Britain, France and China. These states have committed themselves to reducing their nuclear warhead stockpiles.

However a major problem with the international non-proliferation campaign is that three states -- India, Pakistan and Israel -- have been allowed to discreetly develop nuclear weapons while not being a part of the treaty.

Some experts point out however that South Africa disarmed unilaterally after apartheid and other states that once tried to acquire the atomic bomb gave up on it, including Argentina, Brazil and more recently Libya.

Apart from Iran, there are in fact few countries that are currently trying to attain nuclear weapons, says Andy Oppenheimer, an expert from Jane's Defence Weekly magazine in London.

The United States says Tehran is hiding its weapons program behind a civil nuclear power project.

"As long as Israel has a substantial arsenal, there will be always a state in the Middle East that will want the same thing: after Iraq, it is now Iran," Oppenheimer told AFP.

"Syria and Egypt have chemical programs, but seem very behind on the nuclear level. In fact, many countries have some of the intellectual resources, but do not have the vast industrial resources required to make the bomb," he said.

There remains however a dangerous unknown factor -- that the black market deals in products that can be used for nuclear weapons and civil nuclear power.

This was revealed after the discovery of an international network -- run by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan -- that was trafficking nuclear weapons technology to North Korea, Iran and Libya.

"There are perhaps other Khan networks (that are) difficult to control in the era of total capitalism," Oppenheimer adds.

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