UPI NEWS AT SPACEWAR
Analysis: Syria-Iran And Beating War Drums
By Claude Salhani, UPI International Editor
Washington, (UPI) Feb 17, 2005
With the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister Rafik Hariri in Beirut Monday raising the stakes between Washington and Damascus, plus the announcement Wednesday that Syria and Iran would form a common front to counter U.S. pressure in the region, the drums of war are suddenly beating louder.

Reacting just 24 hours after the explosion that took the life of Hariri and 14 other people, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said relations with Damascus were "worsening," and she recalled her ambassador for consultation. Meanwhile, questions are still being asked as to who would profit from Hariri's disappearance from the Lebanese political scene.

In the aftermath of Hariri's tragic death, Syria finds itself in somewhat of a bind with accusing fingers pointing at Damascus, although the Syrian government strongly denies it had any i nvolvement in the sordid affair. Imad Mustapha, Syria's ambassador to Washington, told United Press International that Hariri's killing was "a catastrophe for Syria."

Yet some sources in the intelligence community are saying the crime carries a distinct "signature" that "could be that of Syria, or agents operating for Syria." Two serving CIA officials told UPI Hariri was killed "by a client of Syria, by people who are experts in this sort of thing."

Sources in the intelligence community tell UPI that the CIA and other intelligence sources are looking into a Syrian-Lebanese organization called the Syrian Reconnaissance Service believed to be the mechanism that controls much of Syria's intelligence operations in Lebanon.

There is no doubt that whoever is responsible for the bombing had inside information. Hariri traveled in a convoy of several identical black Mercedes armored cars, in addition to two SUVs equipped with r adar-jamming devices meant to block all radio signals to prevent remote-controlled bombs from being detonated. Usually, he drove his own car.

The decoy cars were ignored, and - according to former information minister Michel Samaha, who had served in Hariri's last cabinet - the blast hit Hariri's car from the side, not from underneath the vehicle. Speaking to United Press International by telephone from Beirut, Samaha said: "This would rule out the theory that the bomb was placed under the road or in a drain. By all indications, it is a suicide bomber."

Someone planting a bomb in the middle of the road and laying a 300-meter or longer wire would have been easily detected in that part of town. Furthermore, the site of the blast was not on Hariri's habitual route, and there was no advance knowledge that he would be passing in front of the St. George Hotel, where the assassination occurred. "This makes us believe that it was a suicide b omber who was double-parked, waiting in a car and rammed Hariri's car," Samaha told UPI.

"The trigger man knew the exact location of Hariri's car," said a U.S. intelligence source.

Another former CIA and State Department official with good ties to the CIA said that the explosion that killed Hariri "was prepared very much in advance" of the motorcade's passing, and that it was not "a suicide bombing."

Since the killing of Hariri, pressure on Bashar Assad's government has increased. The Bush administration accuses Damascus of persistently supporting terrorism, and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Tex., speaking on CNN Tuesday, said: "Everything indicates Syria is harboring terrorism."

Rice said Tuesday, "The Syrian government is unfortunately on a path right now where relations are not improving but are worsening." And Hutchison complained that the United States was getting "no cooperation from Syria ."

The recall of Ambassador Margaret Scobey underlines Washington's strong displeasure with Damascus. Although the United States has been careful not to point any fingers or make direct accusation, in recalling Scobey, Washington is indicating that it holds Syria responsible for the attack.

Hariri's assassination has brought Washington and Paris together on this crisis. Paris is demanding the implementation of U.N. Resolution 1559 calling for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Lebanon. France's ambassador to the United Nations, Jean-Marc de La Sabli�re, said France is "looking for the truth on what happened," and wants to find out "who is responsible for that terrible event." The French envoy added, "Resolution 1559 is a very important resolution, and it is important that this resolution is implemented."

Scobey, who met Syrian Foreign Ministry officials in Damascus prior to her departure, expressed Washington's "con cern" and "outrage" at Hariri's killing. The U.S. ambassador told her Syrian interlocutors of Washington's disapproval of their military presence in Lebanon and reiterated its demand for the immediate withdrawal of the 14,000 troops Damascus maintains in Lebanon.

The penetration of Syria's intelligence services into every segment of Lebanese society and at every echelon of its military, social and political structure would still allow Syrian control over Lebanon, even if its 14,000 troops currently stationed in the country were to withdraw.

"The only excuse for that presence has been that it somehow provided internal security for Lebanon," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Tuesday. "Unfortunately, the very tragic bombing (Monday) shows that that's just plain not true. And therefore we believe that there is no reason for them to remain there."

Hariri, too, felt the Syrians had overstayed their welcome, an d that it was time for them to leave.

As voices in Washington are advocating action against Syria, it would serve Damascus to demonstrate its good will by facilitating an international investigation of Hariri's killing as requested by Paris and Washington. That would be a first step.

However, Syria and Iran joining forces will only enrage Washington further, raising the ante in a very dangerous game.

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