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Analysis: Sinn Fein -- A Party In Crisis
By Hannah K. Strange, UPI UK Correspondent
Belfast, Northern Ireland (UPI) Mar 14, 2005
As Northern Ireland reacts with anger to the Irish Republican Army's revelation it offered to shoot the killers of Belfast man Robert McCartney, and Westminster approves the removal of Sinn Fein's parliamentary allowances, the Republican movement is looking increasingly mired in crisis.

The question has been raised: Is Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams the Yasser Arafat of Northern Ireland rather than its Nelson Mandela?

Calls for Sinn Fein to be removed from both Westminster and the Northern Ireland Assembly reached a new high this week, as accusations of its leaders' involvement in paramilitary and criminal activity mounted.

The IRA's statement Tuesday that it had offered to shoot the killers of Robert MacCartney, slain by members of the IRA during a Belfast pub brawl in February, has acted as an explosive catalyst for such claims.

Northern Ireland Chief Constable Hugh Orde, in an interview with the Daily Mail Wednesday, backed Irish Justice Minister Michael McDowell's recent assertion that Gerry Adams and Martin McGuiness sat on the IRA's seven-man ruling council.

The claim was a "reasonable assumption" to make, he said.

Senior members of the three other main political parties in Northern Ireland said Wednesday the IRA's unusual statement signaled the internal strife within Sinn Fein and its paramilitary wing, as it came under political and community pressure over the killing and the Northern Bank robbery in December.

Alban Magennis, assembly member and justice spokesman of the moderate nationalist Social Democrat Labor Party, said, "The Republican movement has taken a very serious knock ... and they are in a very confused and very difficult position."

The McCartney slaying and the family's campaign for justice was causing "tremendous tensions" and divisions, he said, and he had no doubt that it would cause a split at some point.

Although Sinn Fein and the IRA were one integrated political movement, it was clear the IRA was the "dominant element" in the relationship, he said.

Recent events could undermine support for Sinn Fein in the coming local and general elections, he said, as floating voters were put off by IRA criminality.

Polls in the Republic of Ireland -- where Sinn Fein is also represented -- had shown a significant decline in support for Adams as a leader and a slight decline in party support, he noted.

Stephen King, political adviser to Ulster Unionist Party Leader David Trimble, agreed that three senior Sinn Fein figures, including Adams and McGuinness, sat on the IRA's ruling council, but said Adams may not be in total control of the organization.

"He's savvy enough to know that you don't put out statements like that, so clearly he didn't write it," said King.

It suggested there were difficulties and tensions within the Republican movement, he said, and that a jockeying for position was going on. This instability was particularly worrying as it indicated Adams may not be the man to deliver the militant group's renunciation of violence.

Sinn Fein has been given seven years to make good their commitment to democracy, he said. "I think seven years is enough really."

But John O'Doude, Sinn Fein assembly group leader, denied the Republican movement was in confusion or crisis, saying they had come through worse times before.

He told journalists that Sinn Fein had had no prior knowledge of the IRA statement and was thankful such punishments had not been carried out.

"Sinn Fein does not support the shooting of anyone," he said.

However, anybody who joined the IRA would understand that such punishment would be enacted against offending members, he added.

Although there was no "organic link" between the two organizations, he said, it was not practical to completely break relations, as this would lose Sinn Fein support among the Republican community.

The party's decision to cancel a fundraising drive in the United States was not an acknowledgement of waning support there, he said, but simply recognition that these were sensitive times.

Washington's invitation to the McCartney sisters to attend the White House on St Patrick's Day in lieu of the Sinn Fein leadership was also not a sign that U.S. patience with the party was wearing thin, he continued. None of the political parties had been invited, he noted, and it was entirely appropriate that the McCartney should attend.

However, Northern Ireland Secretary P aul Murphy said Tuesday that support for Sinn Fein in the United States was evaporating.

Irish-American supporters who had previously given funds to Sinn Fein and the IRA were in decline, he said, as Americans had become less tolerant of terrorist activity post 9/11.

"I just don't think the community would stand for it anymore," he said.

The pressure within Westminster is also rising, as several members of Parliament made clear Thursday they did not believe the financial sanctions on Sinn Fein went far enough.

Lembit Opik, the Liberal Democrats spokesman for Northern Ireland, was among those accepting claims that Adams and McGuiness were on the IRA council.

Although the amendment was defeated, 170 MPs voted for the party to lose its parliamentary allowances for a year -- amounting to $845,000 -- and be permanently evicted from its Westminster offices.

Many point ed out that such a sum of money is in fact small change to Sinn Fein.

It is widely thought that Sinn Fein is the richest party in Western Europe, allegedly funded by massive crime and money-laundering operations carried out by the IRA.

Democratic Unionist Party Leader Ian Paisley said the government's continuing policy of lenience to Sinn Fein had to end.

"It is not peace at any price, it must be peace based on democracy, fairness and justice," he said, saying the British government had to send the message that "no longer will violence, murder and mayhem pay."

In the end, however, it may be nationalist voters themselves who make that message heard.

In a poll by the Belfast Telegraph and BBC's Newsnight published Thursday and taken just before the IRA's statement, a startling 44 percent of Sinn Fein voters and 60 percent of all nationalists said the IRA must disband now.

Some 47 percent of all voters said senior Sinn Fein leaders should be arrested because of their prior knowledge of the IRA's activities.

Support for Sinn Fein has dropped by 3 percent since the November 2003 election to 20 percent, and the party is now neck and neck with the SDLP, whose support has grown correspondingly by 3 percent from 17 percent. Nationalists, it seems, are becoming tired of radicalism and criminality.

With pressure mounting on all sides, Gerry Adams is going to have to deliver soon, or risk seeing his mandate fade away.

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