To: General Screwtape, Chief of Staff, Supreme Infernal Headquarters

Re: End of year net assessment

Your Lucifership asked for a short report on the state of the world before the week of Dec. 25.

I am happy to be able to report that our net assessment is favorable. Fourth Generation war and the disorder it represents continue to expand their reach. The formerly Christian West, crippled by two of our favorite tools, hubris and ideology, flails helplessly before it. II Section, Intelligence, shares our view that the 21st century promises to be even bloodier than the 20th.

We have suffered what we believe will prove a temporary setback in Iraq. Al-Qaida's premature enforcement of Shariah law led Iraqi Sunnis to rebel, even to the point of making tactical alliances with the Americans. As a result, the level of violence is down.

This is, however, just a calm before the storm. The American leadership does not understand 4GW and persists in seeing the Iraq war in binary terms. It therefore misses the developments favorable to disorder: rising Shiite-on-Shiite violence, endemic crime of every sort, sectarian hatreds that grow ever more bitter and, most important, the lack of anything recognizable as a state. We assess that the current relative quiet in portions of Iraq is illusory and will be followed by further disintegration and stateless disorder. Let me add one minor but happy assessment from Hell's standpoint: The American invasion has virtually destroyed Iraq's ancient Christian community.

Otherwise, the news is everywhere encouraging. Both NATO and the United States are getting bloody noses in Afghanistan and cannot adapt. Western governments' devilish combination of ignorance and hubris prevents them from accepting the primary Afghan reality, namely that the Pashtun always win Afghan wars.

The spillover from Afghanistan, in turn, is pulling Pakistan apart. We assess that the Pakistani state will disintegrate in the near future, with strategic consequences far more hellish than anything possible in Iraq. The potential combination of 4GW and loose nukes is one we view with delight.

Adding to the witches' brew is the likelihood of an American attack on Iran, which we asses as unaffected by the recent American NIE. As you are aware, the American White House has fallen into one of Hell's favorite traps, a closed system. With outside reality excluded and all decisions a product of court politics, the probability of blunders is almost 100 percent. The U.S. leadership's erroneous belief that it is now winning in Iraq adds to its already towering hubris. Putting the two together, we assess a 60 percent to 70 percent probability that American bombers will be hitting targets in Iran by the end of March.

Our optimism, however, is based less on what is occurring in the Islamic world, which we own anyway, than on the West's internal folly. Here we see on a grand scale the consequences of the West's abandonment of Our Enemy and its embrace of irreligion.

Having accepted and internalized the cultural Marxism of the Frankfurt School, Western elites embrace anything that promises the West's destruction. From a military perspective, that includes invasion by millions of immigrants from other cultures, immigrants who regard the West and its traditions with loathing and contempt.

Even as they spread Fourth Generation war from one Western country to another, the elites' ideology forbids any honest discussion of what is going on. Defense is impossible, because no Western country dares acknowledge it is under attack. I beg you offer Hell's propaganda department my deepest thanks for the wonderful goblin-words it has created to stop all discussion; my two favorites are "racism" and "fascism."

So long as the West busies itself in sandboxes such as Iraq and Afghanistan and ignores what is happening on its own soil, we assess that Hell's victory is certain. By the end of the 21st century, our most dangerous opponent for two millennia, the Western, Christian tradition, will be wiped off the Earth and out of history.

We must put two qualifiers on this assessment. First, we assess a 10 percent probability that Western publics will rebel against their elites' cultural Marxism and its demand for self-destruction. With cultural Marxists controlling virtually all Western institutions, including most churches, this is not something Hell need lose a day's sleep over.

The other qualifier is that Our Enemy could intervene personally and restore "faith" in the West. As you know all too well, that is the sort of thing He has been known to do, just when things look brightest for us.

(William S. Lind, expressing his own personal opinion, is director of the Center for Cultural Conservatism at the Free Congress Foundation.)

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