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US 'surge' likely to end with more troops in Iraq than before: general

Iraq needs US troops for deterrence: minister
Iraq's defence minister said on Saturday that his country needs US troops to protect its borders and also for "strategic deterrence." "We need US troops... for the defence of the borders... I don't have anything I can use for strategic deterrence. I do not have intercepting aircraft," Abdel Qader Jassim Mohammed told AFP on the sidelines of a conference in the United Arab Emirates.

"My need for them (US troops) is pressing in this regard," Mohammed said. But the Iraqi official, who was in Dubai to attend a conference on Iraqi defence and security, said that Iraqi troops always replace US forces when the security situation improves and the latter withdraw from a certain area. "Whenever the security situation seriously improves we replace them. We have a plan for this year but I cannot disclose the timetable," he said.

"Anyway, the Americans themselves are not willing to abandon Iraq unless they are confident that we are capable. This is an agreement," Mohammed added. A senior Pentagon official said earlier this week that the US "surge" is likely to end in July with more troops in Iraq than the 132,000 who were there before five extra combat brigades were sent in more than a year ago. Lieutenant General Carter Ham said that support forces and trainers who went in with the surge will still be needed to back up Iraq's expanding security forces after the last of the extra combat brigades leaves."It's likely that the number will be a little bit larger than the 132,000 or so that was the number of personnel on the ground pre-surge," said Ham, the operations director of the Joint Staff. Currently there are about 158,000 US troops in Iraq, down from a high of about 170,000 at the height of the surge. The Iraqi defence minister told reporters in Dubai that the surge was "working very well." "Results for 2007 prove that -- Baghdad is good now," he added.

by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Feb 15, 2008
The US "surge" is likely to end in July with more troops in Iraq than the 132,000 that were there before five extra combat brigades were sent in more than a year ago, a senior Pentagon official said.

Lieutenant General Carter Ham said that support forces and trainers that went in with the surge will still be needed to back up Iraq's expanding security forces after the last of the extra combat brigades leaves.

"It's likely that the number will be a little bit larger than the 132,000 or so that was the number of personnel on the ground pre-surge," said Ham, who is the operations director of the Joint Staff.

About 8,000 support troops were deployed to Iraq as part of the surge.

Ham would not say whether 140,000 troops would be the upper limit of the post-surge US force.

"I wouldn't want to bound it just yet. I think let's let the commanders make that assessment," he said.

It was the latest sign that General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, intends to keep as large a US force as possible in the country to keep a lid on the violence, while Iraqi security forces assume responsibility for more territory in the country.

Petraeus is expected to make his recommendations on post-surge force levels in April.

But he already has called for a pause in the US troop drawdowns after July to allow time to evaluate the performance of Iraq's security security forces and the impact on security of a smaller US force.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who has hoped to continue the drawdown after July, said this week after meeting with Petraeus in Iraq that he also was inclined to support a brief pause.

But keeping large numbers of US troops in Iraq is placing a greater strain on the US Army, which is looking to reduce tour lengths from 15 months to 12 months to relieve the stress on the force.

Currently there are about 158,000 US troops in Iraq, down from a high of about 170,000 at the height of the surge.

So far, only one of the extra combat brigades has come out. The next is due to redeploy in March, and then the remaining three will come out at a rate of one every six weeks through July, Ham said.

The support troops include logistics, aviation, military police, and intelligence as well as trainers for the Iraqi military and police.

"We always knew we would provide the enablers as we grow now their logistics capacity and capability, their artillery, all of the others supporting arms and combat support elements," said Lieutenant General John Sattler, the Joint Staff's director of plans.

"So as we bring some of our combat elements out, (and) the Iraqis grow up toward 600,000 for a total security force, we will still be required for a period of time to provide those enablers," he said.

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One of the more intriguing questions Clio, the ancient Greek Muse of History, poses is the degree to which great military victories were the fruit of smart plans as opposed to dumb luck. Did the North Vietnamese expect the Tet Offensive to be a tactical defeat but an operational victory? They now claim they did, but we will not know until their archives are opened.






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