WAR.WIRE
U.S. Allawi delaying Fallujah offensive
WASHINGTON, (UPI) Oct. 12 , 2004 -

A major U.S. ground offensive in Fallujah was scheduled for mid-October but was scuttled by Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi under pressure from his Sunni colleagues in his interim government, a senior U.S. military official in Iraq told United Press International Tuesday.

The Los Angeles Times reported Monday that the White House has decreed that no major ground battles be fought until after the Nov. 2 U.S. election, to avoid negative political repercussions a bloody battle may entail.

The White House and the Pentagon denied the story Monday.

The senior military official told UPI Tuesday the delay is not the U.S. election cycle but the divided Iraqi government. Prime Minister Allawi is a Shiite, but several of his top advisers are Sunnis, and many are the same people who called for and negotiated the U.S. Marine withdrawal from Fallujah in May after a bloody battle and long stand-off there.

Allawi got cold feet, or rather, he received extraordinary pressure from his Sunni (president, Ghazi al-Yawar) and other Sunnis in the (interim Iraqi government) to let negotiations go on, the official said.

Al-Yawar led the delegation from Baghdad that negotiated an agreement -- which the U.S. military considered flawed from the beginning -- that resulted in the withdrawal of troops from Fallujah. It also created the Fallujah Brigade, a now-disbanded force of about 2,000 Fallujans that quickly became part of the problem in the city, now firmly in the hands of insurgent groups.

As recently as three weeks ago the same official suggested in an interview there would be a major engagement in mid-October in Iraq, but did not specify Fallujah as the battleground.

Since the United States transferred sovereignty to Iraq in June, Allawi and his government must approve major U.S. military actions, other than those carried out in self-defense. While it is a matter of debate exactly how independent Allawi is from his American patrons, it is in U.S. military interests to honor his independence, as it shores up his government. It is only with a stable, authoritative Baghdad that U.S. troops can eventually be withdrawn.

Allawi is the guy who de jure makes the decision; de facto, we have to have his concurrence, the official said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld met with Allawi in Iraq this week to pressure him on the matter of Fallujah, the official said.

Everybody here, to include Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz and Gen. George Casey (the top two American commanders in Iraq) know that 'hoping' on negotiations is a fool's errand, the official said. The multinational coalition and the U.S. government in the form of Rummy himself are putting incredible pressure on Allawi to change his mind. That is why (Rumsfeld) was (in Iraq) this week. He was very, very blunt in his conversations with Casey ... and he was very blunt with Allawi.

If an attack in Fallujah is delayed, it will not be because of the U.S. elections, the official said.

The U.S. military long ago identified Fallujah as the main source of funding, planning and inspiration for the increasingly organized insurgency in Iraq, and the Marine Corps in particular has been looking forward to a final battle to finish what was started in April. The Marines lost nearly 60 men in that fight.

It is paying a particularly high price for the fact that Fallujah has been allowed to become a safe harbor for the insurgency, as it frequently clashes groups led by resistance fighters that organize from within Fallujah and export their fights to other parts of Iraq. Fallujah is also said to be the source of expertise and materials for the deadly roadside bombs and car bombs that claim around one soldier or Marine a day around the country.

In August, the Marine-led regimental combat team responsible for Fallujah announced the Fallujah Brigade and the Iraqi police force inside the city would be declared illegitimate and told its members to turn in their weapons and uniforms. The move was meant to clear the city of any friendly Fallujah fighters, who would presumably comply with the order. All others would henceforth be considered fair targets.

A senior Marine commander told UPI at a meeting on the outskirts of Fallujah on Aug. 14 that the order was meant to set up a situation for a final battle in the city once Baghdad signed off on it.

In an example of the complications Iraqi sovereignty poses for U.S. forces, after UPI filed a report on the dissolution of the brigade, the military was forced to backtrack, as it had overstepped its bounds. Despite the tactical control it -- on paper at least -- exerted over the Fallujah Brigade and the fact that the United States paid its salaries, only Allawi's government could dissolve the Fallujah Brigade, a senior military official said.

Baghdad finally ordered the dissolution of the brigade on Sept. 11.

Another senior official, not directly involved with Iraq combat operations but with responsibilities that involve Fallujah, said he had no knowledge of a scuttled plan. He acknowledged, however, the impact of politics in both Washington and Baghdad over military operations.

This (offensive) is not coming as a big surprise so we have our (battle) plans. The missing piece is, of course, the date and that is going to be a decision made by the politicians. Baghdad and Washington both have their own agendas. ... Politics rules the day and we do as we are told.