Syria's surprisingly swift acceptance to withdraw its troops and intelligence units from neighboring Lebanon after nearly 30 years came about so suddenly, and unfolded so smoothly, that some analysts suspect it might be just a little too easy.

So what does this mean? It means Syria still has an ace or two up its sleeve. In other words, could Syria be planning a comeback? Or will it use the momentum to settle internal issues?

Remember President Bashar Assad's speech to his National Assembly March 7, when he said: "Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon does not mean the absence of Syria's role." The Syrian president then added, "Syria's strength and its role in Lebanon are not dependent on the presence of its forces in Lebanon."

Addressing the issue of Syrian intelligence units leaving Lebanon, Raymond Tanter, a former member of the National Security Council, said: "I am not sure they crossed into Syria."

No doubt high-tech satellites controlled from the National Security Agency outside Washington will be tracking the moves of departing Syrian intel officers. No doubt imaging analysts will scrutinize every detail of images produced by those satellites. So, too, will "humint" -- or human intelligence agents -- riding in nondescript battered Mercedes taxis, and keeping a few dozen yards behind the Syrians, just to make sure their final destination is indeed inside Syrian territory.

Of course, suspicions of Syria having second thoughts or ulterior motives could be brushed off as the basis of conspiracy theories; heaven knows the Middle East has more than its fair share of those who see intrigue behind every door, and every car bomb. But every now and then one of those theories is justified.

It was also no accident that a car bomb went off Friday night in a Christian neighborhood of Beirut, injuring 11 people. Conspiracy theorists will see this as a "message" that further demonstrations by the opposition in Lebanon could turn nasty. One need only refer to the 15-year civil war to see how nasty things can get. Following the massive anti-Syrian protest last Monday in which an estimated 1 million people took part, Lebanese President Emile Lahoud has called for end to all demonstrations, cautioning there could be trouble. A conspiracy theorist would see a connection.

Being familiar with the area, its actors, and its mindset, its history as well as its penchant for violence, a conspiracy theorist might conclude that it is atypical of the Syrians to allow themselves to be pushed around without fighting back. Particularly when at stake is not only the loss of face, an issue of prime importance in the Arab world, but also an important segment of the Syrian economy.

What really drives Syria's ambitions to remain in Lebanon is as much economic as it is political. For the past 30 years, Lebanon has represented a sacred cash cow for the limping statist Syrian economy. The average income in Syria is about $150 a month, according to members of the Syrian opposition, or $1,100 according to the United Nations. In either case, Syria ranks -- according to the CIA -- 150th in GDP per capita behind Lebanon (131), Jordan (135) and the tiny island of Cyprus (116).

"This is the Middle East, and we are talking about money," said a European diplomat familiar with the region. "The revenue generated from Lebanon is as important to the Syrian economy as oil is to Saudi Arabia," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We are talking about smuggling allowed by government," said the European diplomat, referring to Damascus-sanctioned illegal trade taking place across the Lebanese-Syrian border.

Syria, conspiracy theorists aver, went as far as assassinating Lebanon's former prime minister Rafik Hariri because he was becoming a nuisance to Damascus. Or, if Syrian intelligence did not commit the act themselves they at least sanctioned it. The assassination of Hariri was far too important a job, and its consequences too far reaching, for Damascus not to have at least given a tacit nod to the task. A U.N. report into Hariri's killing due to be released Monday is anxiously awaited.

So, asks the conspiracy theorist, what will Damascus, or rather, what will Syrian President Bashar Assad do next?

"Bashar will play for time and try and do as little as possible," said Tanter. "Bashar is confronted with a puzzle. If he accepts (United Nations Security Council Resolution) 1559, he loses legitimacy vis-à-vis his people." The resolution calls for complete withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon. "If he accepts, he loses ground to his opposition at home."

"So Bashar will chose the middle road and end up not pleasing anyone," hoping to buy time and gamble on the support of his only friend in Lebanon with any political weight - Hezbollah.

But the Lebanese Shiite militant organization, currently riding the crest of democratization, as says Tanter, may decide it is not in its interest to side with Damascus.

Still, some analysts see this as an opportunity for Bashar to consolidate his base at home. Bashar is not in jeopardy, says Joshua Landis, of the University of Oklahoma, and the blogsite Syriacomment.com.

"In fact," says Landis, who is spending a year in Damascus, "he seems to have consolidated his power as a result of the Lebanon affair: putting his family in positions of greater power, sidelining old guard figures."

"Reformers are hoping Bashar will use this moment to push through more dramatic reforms," says Landis. Could this be the golden moment Bashar was waiting for to push the old guard out? Tanter, for one, does not believe Assad ever wanted to reform.

Others, like Landis, feel there are those who "are hoping that the president will respond to the setbacks in Lebanon by taking charge of internal matters more firmly and reinvigorating reform.

"It is unclear whether he will do that," adds Landis.

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