Democratic Taiwan is two days from a pivotal election that is being watched from Beijing to Washington because the next president will determine the island's future relations with an increasingly assertive China in a flashpoint region.
China views Taiwan as a renegade province and has never renounced the use of force to take it one day.
Vice President Lai Ching-te, the frontrunner candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has portrayed himself as a defender of Taiwan's democracy but has drawn ire from China in the past over comments about independence -- a red line for Beijing.
China's Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement Thursday that if Lai "comes to power, he will further push for 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities (and create) turbulence in the Taiwan Strait".
"(He) would continue to follow the evil path of provoking 'independence' and... take Taiwan ever further away from peace and prosperity, and ever closer to war and decline," it said.
"We sincerely hope that most Taiwan compatriots will see the extreme harm of the DPP's 'Taiwan independence' line and the severe danger of Lai Ching-te in his instigation of cross-strait conflicts."
China's warning on Lai comes after Washington announced it plans to send an unofficial delegation to Taiwan after the election, a move that drew a sharp rebuke from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing on Thursday.
Washington must "refrain from intervening in the elections... so as to avoid causing serious damage to US-China relations", said foreign affairs spokesperson Mao Ning, hitting back at Washington for its "brazen chattering about the elections".
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu criticised China's "repeated interference" in the election.
"Taiwan's upcoming elections are in the international spotlight & (China's) repeated interference steals the focus. Frankly, Beijing should stop messing with other countries' elections & hold their own," Wu posted on social media platform X on Thursday.
Lai, who had once called himself a "pragmatic worker for Taiwan's independence", has taken a softer line on the issue on the campaign trail.
He has chosen instead to echo current President Tsai Ing-wen's stance that Taiwan is "already independent" and therefore does not need to formally declare it.
China cut off high-level communications with Tsai's government over her defence of the island's sovereignty.
Lai said on Tuesday that Taiwan cannot have "illusions about peace".
"Accepting China's 'one-China' principle is not true peace," he said, referring to Beijing's doctrine that Taiwan is a part of China.
- 'Staunch ally' -
Lai's opponent Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) -- which has long encouraged closer cooperation with Beijing -- has run on maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait, saying that Lai would be a danger to China relations.
Hou rejected the DPP's allegation that he was "pro-China and a sell-out of Taiwan".
"Taiwan is a democratic and free country," he told foreign media on Thursday, stressing that he did not have "unrealistic ideas" about China's intentions.
"No matter what China thinks... what the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan wants us to do is to maintain the status quo," Hou said, adding that the issue of "reunification" will not be on the table if he is elected.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a recent address that unifying Taiwan with China is an "inevitability".
Beijing has stepped up military pressure on the island in recent years, sending warplanes and naval vessels on manoeuvres around Taiwan.
Tsai has boosted defence spending during her two terms in office, buying more weapons from top ally the United States.
Hou said he will "not only increase our purchases... but also strengthen Taiwan-US military cooperation" if elected.
"We are happy to see the United States playing a positive role in maintaining stability in Taiwan Strait," he said.
"No matter what happens here, the United States will forever remain a staunch ally of ours."
Three-way race: Taiwan's presidential candidates
Taipei (AFP) Jan 11, 2024 -
Three candidates are vying to become Taiwan's next president in a critical vote closely watched by neighbouring China and the rest of the world.
China relations, economic policy and youth incentives are some of the key issues in the contest to succeed President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) after her eight years in power.
Here are the candidates:
- Lai Ching-te -
Lai, 64, of the DPP is the frontrunner in the race. He became vice president four years ago as Tsai's running mate in her landslide re-election.
The son of a miner, Harvard-educated Lai served as a lawmaker, the mayor of southwestern city Tainan and premier since switching to politics from a medical profession nearly 30 years ago.
He has been more outspoken than Tsai about Taiwan's independence -- a red line for China, which claims the island as part of its territory -- previously describing himself as a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker".
Beijing has slammed Lai and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, Taipei's former de facto ambassador to Washington, as a "dangerous independence duo".
After Lai returned from a visit to Paraguay with two US stopovers in August, China staged huge war games around Taiwan.
He has called the election a choice between "democracy and autocracy", and pledged his "unwavering" support to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.
"Peace is priceless and there is no winner in a war," he said at a televised policy presentation by presidential candidates.
"I am willing to open the door to exchanges and cooperation with China on the preconditions of parity and dignity."
He has also vowed to raise salaries, cut taxes and provide more social housing in a bid to woo younger voters, who have grown disillusioned by the DPP during its eight-year grip on power.
- Hou Yu-ih -
Former police chief and New Taipei city mayor Hou is the candidate for the Beijing-friendly main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party.
The 66-year-old entered politics in 2010 when he was appointed deputy mayor of New Taipei, Taiwan's largest constituency with around four million residents -- a position he held for over seven years.
He defeated a DPP bigwig in 2018 local elections to run the city, and was re-elected last year.
Hou has described the election as a choice "between war and peace," and said his three-decades-long career in law enforcement would enable him to "protect Taiwan".
"I can maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait and I will do my best to avoid war so that everyone can live a peaceful life," he said at a recent campaign rally.
Hou has criticised the DPP for what he calls "the worst economy in 14 years" and vowed to negotiate with China "as soon as possible" on issues related to a sweeping cross-strait trade pact if elected.
- Ko Wen-je -
Ko, 64, founded the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) in 2019 as an alternative to the island's two dominant political camps.
The former surgeon was a novice to politics when he ran for Taipei mayor and won in 2014, the first time an independent was elected to lead the capital city.
Known by his nickname "Ko P" -- a reference to his experience as a medical professor -- Ko has billed himself as a "reasonable and pragmatic" alternative to the two big parties that "many middle voters cannot stand" anymore.
His brash rhetorical style has won him some support -- especially from younger people.
But critics say he has flip-flopped on issues depending on his audience, and Ko's past comments on women and LGBTQ people -- in one of the only territories in Asia-Pacific where same-sex couples have marital rights -- have also sparked controversy.
On China relations, Ko told AFP during an interview that "the relationship between the DPP government and Beijing is a deadlock".
He also agreed on bolstering the island's self-defence capabilities to make Beijing see that a war "comes with a high price", but stressed that "communication can prevent misfire".
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