Now that the Islamic State group has officially lost its geographic "caliphate," the Pentagon is marking a historic moment in its years-long campaign to defeat the jihadists.

From a military perspective at least, the United States can claim significant success in its strategy of working "by, with and through" local proxy forces, where a Kurdish militia in Syria and security forces in Iraq bore the brunt of the fighting -- and dying.

But IS still has thousands of battle-hardened fighters across several countries, and questions loom over whether the group's territorial loss can be parlayed into an enduring defeat -- or whether President Donald Trump's decision to pull most troops from Syria is premature, and risks ruining the end game.

"I'd be hesitant to use the term winning," General Raymond Thomas, who heads US Special Operations Command, told lawmakers recently.

The objective is "to be able to maintain persistent capabilities so that an external threat cannot emanate from that in the future."

Asked if he was satisfied the United States was at that point, Thomas said: "I do not think we're there yet."

How much the United States can influence things will only diminish after the Pentagon withdraws all but 200 of the 2,000 or so special forces from Syria that have been helping the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

Trump in December declared victory over IS, saying the US had "beaten them badly" as he announced the pullout.

John Spencer, a scholar at the Modern War Institute at West Point, said things were not so simple.

IS "is a terrorist organization, all they have to do is put down their weapons and try to blend in with the population and just escape," he told AFP.

"They're not gone, and they're not going to be gone," he said.

- Started under Obama -

The US-led mission began in late 2014 under president Barack Obama, after IS fighters seized an area the size of Britain across Iraq and Syria.

In an effort to "degrade and ultimately defeat" the black-flag-flying jihadists, the United States formed a coalition that grew to more than 70 nations, several of which started bombing IS positions in 2014.

In the years since, the coalition has conducted about 34,000 air strikes in Syria and Iraq.

Instead of committing large numbers of troops, the coalition combined its air campaign with training and advising to local forces.

The decision stemmed partly from the Iraq War, which saw more than 4,400 US troops die.

An American public wary of additional deployments did not want Obama recommitting more combat troops.

The strategy paid off fastest in Iraq, where a national military that had neared collapse in the face of the IS advance morphed into an army that ousted the jihadists from one city after another until retaking their stronghold of Mosul in 2017.

When Trump took office, he essentially continued Obama's strategy, albeit with tougher talk and looser constraints on air strikes.

"Overall, the US strategy was effective at pushing back the Islamic State," Daniel Byman, a senior Fellow at the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, told AFP.

However, he noted, it has not solved the problem of local governance in Syria, where the grueling civil war gave rise to the conditions that allowed IS to blossom in the first place.

"So the Islamic State is remaining active -- hundreds of killings this month alone -- as an insurgency," Byman said.

The toll on US-backed local forces has been brutal, with thousands of Syrian and Iraqi fighters killed.

- 'It's just no' -

Trump's decision to withdraw from Syria has left Kurdish partners scrambling for safeguards, and they are hoping a "safe zone" in the north can provide them cover.

A US departure makes Kurdish fighters more vulnerable to attack by neighboring Turkey, which considers them to be "terrorists," and dashes their dreams of autonomy.

The New York-based Soufan Group, which compiles security assessments, cautioned against claims of beating IS.

That would "only serve to offer a false sense of security while showing that the United States remains out of touch with realities on the ground," Soufan said.

General Joseph Votel, who heads the US military's Central Command, said the military cannot take its eye off IS.

"The coalition's hard-won battlefield gains can only be secured by maintaining a vigilant offensive against a now largely disbursed and disaggregated (IS) that retains leaders, fighters, facilitators, resources and the profane ideology that fuels their efforts," said Votel, who is about to retire, adding that Trump never checked in with him about a Syria withdrawal.

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan has tried to convince skeptical allies to help secure Syria.

But "it is totally out of the question to have French troops on the ground without the Americans there," one French government source told AFP.

"It's just no."

Islamic State's 'caliphate' in Syria, Iraq
Beirut (AFP) March 23, 2019 - Islamic State jihadists in June 2014 proclaimed a "caliphate" across territory seized in Syria and Iraq, but have since lost one territory after another until the fall of a border village Saturday.

A timeline:

- Caliphate -

On June 29, 2014, jihadists of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) proclaim a "caliphate" led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi across territory the group seized in Syria and Iraq and rebrands itself the Islamic State (IS).

In Syria, ISIL had in January seized the northern city of Raqa from rebels.

It also controls a large part of the eastern province of Deir Ezzor, on the border with Iraq, as well as positions in the northern province of Aleppo.

In Iraq, where it is backed by former officers of late dictator Saddam Hussein and salafist groups, ISIL in June seizes Mosul and Sunni Arab areas bordering the autonomous Kurdistan region.

A badly prepared Iraqi army is routed without a fight.

Raqa and Mosul become the IS's two de-facto capitals.

In July, Baghdadi appears in a video posted on jihadist websites and calls on all Muslims everywhere to "obey" him.

- Atrocities -

In Raqa, the IS carries out beheadings, mass executions, rapes, abductions and ethnic cleansing. It stones to death women suspected of adultery and slaughters homosexuals.

Some of the atrocities are broadcast on video, which the jihadists use as a propaganda tool.

In Iraq, the group seizes the historic home of the Yazidi minority in Sinjar region, turning young children into soldiers and using thousands of women as sex slaves.

- Anti-jihadist coalition -

In August 2014, US warplanes strike IS positions in northern Iraq.

Washington then forms a coalition of more than 70 countries to fight the group in both Iraq and Syria. Washington deploys 5,000 soldiers.

- Defeats in Syria -

Backed by US-led air strikes, Kurdish forces in January 2015 drive the jihadists out of the city of Kobane, on the Turkish border.

In August 2016, a US-backed Kurdish-Arab alliance known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) recaptures Manbij in Aleppo province.

Backed by Turkish tanks and air force, rebels then retake Jarabulus, and then, in February 2017, Al-Bab, the last IS bastion in Aleppo province.

In March 2017, Syrian troops backed by Russian jets recapture the ancient desert town of Palmyra from the IS.

The oasis city had traded hands several times during the war and become a symbol of the jihadists' destruction of priceless cultural heritage in areas under their control.

In October 2017, the SDF announces the full recapture of Raqa city, the capital of the eponymous province.

In September 2018, the coalition launches an offensive against IS pockets in Deir Ezzor province.

On Saturday, March 23, the SDF announces the death of the caliphate after seizing total control of the last IS outpost in the village of Baghouz neighbouring Iraq.

- Defeats in Iraq -

In March 2015, Iraq announces the "liberation" of Saddam's hometown of Tikrit, north of Baghdad. The operation highlights the crucial role of Hashed al-Shaabi, a Shiite-dominated paramilitary group.

In November, coalition-backed Kurdish forces retake Sinjar.

In 2016, Anbar provincial capital Ramadi is recaptured and Iraqi forces retake Fallujah.

In July 2017, then Iraqi prime minister Haider al-Abadi declares victory in Mosul after a nearly nine-month offensive led by a federal force backed by coalition air strikes.

In August, the last major IS urban stronghold in northern Iraq, Tal Afar, is declared "liberated", as is the whole of Niniveh province.

On December 9, Abadi declares victory in Iraq's three-year war against the IS.

- Attacks -

The jihadists, however, carry out periodic attacks.

In January 2018, a double suicide attack leaves more than 30 dead in central Baghdad. The IS has since claimed several deadly attacks in Iraq.

In Syria on January 16, 2019, a routine US patrol is targeted by a IS suicide bomber at Manbij.

Ten civilians, five fighters from the Kurdish-Arab force and four Americans are killed.

Several days later in northeastern Hasakeh province, five are killed when a US-SDF convoy is attacked by a suicide bomber.

Related Links
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Doomed jihadists retreat within shrinking Syria bastion
Baghouz , Syria (AFP) March 19, 2019
Holdout jihadists scurried along the reedy banks of the Euphrates in an increasingly desperate defence Tuesday of the last scrap of their "caliphate" in eastern Syria. Advancing Kurdish-led forces forced diehard fighters from the Islamic State group out of the main encampment where they had been confined in recent days. The move brought a months-old operation to wipe out the last vestige of IS's once-sprawling proto-state closer to its inevitable outcome but the Syrian Democratic Forces stopped ... read more