"January through September 2006 will be the peak period of the insurgency and the bottom rung of the new Iraq," McCaffrey told the Senate foreign relations committee.

"The positive trend lines following the January 2006 elections -- if they continue -- will likely permit the withdrawal of US combat forces by late summer of 2006," said McCaffrey, who formerly taught at the West Point military academy, after a week-long fact-finding tour of Iraq one month ago.

"With 250,000 Iraqi security forces successfully operating in support of a government which includes substantial Sunni participation the energy will start rapidly draining out of the insurgency by next summer, in my judgment," said McCaffrey, who participated in the 1991 Gulf War.

McCaffrey commended the "decent strategy" built by former US ambassador to Iraq John Negroponte and the leader of the US Central Command, General John Abizaid.

McCaffrey said that the anti-insurgency battles had taken their toll on US troops.

"We've got 17 combat brigades there right now, we will be forced into a drawdown and have 10 brigades or less on the ground by next summer.

"The Army and Marines are starting to come apart under this overly aggressive foreign policy," he said.

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