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Japan, China hostages to public opinion: analysts
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) Sept 26, 2012


Japan and China meet over island conflct
Tokyo (UPI) Sep 25, 2012 - Japan and China are to have high-level talks this week in an effort to avoid confrontation over the Japanese-controlled but disputed Senkaku Islands.

Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Chikao Kawai is in Beijing to meet with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported.

"I will explain Japan's thinking as well as listen to China's thinking" on the South China Sea territorial dispute, Kawai said.

Tensions have remained high, especially after the Japanese government bought three of the five main Senkaku Islands this month from their private Japanese owner as part of a plan to officially nationalize the uninhabited islets.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said China will urge Japan to "correct mistakes" it has made over the islands, which are known as Diaoyu in China.

"China will elaborate on its position on the Diaoyu Islands, demand that Japan correct its mistakes and make efforts to improve Sino-Japanese relations," Hong said.

China -- as well as Taiwan -- contests Japan's ownership of the Senkakus and their accompanying rocky outcrops, which are around 100 miles north of Japan's Ishigaki Island and 116 miles northeast of Taiwan.

At the end of World War II in 1945 the islands were under U.S. jurisdiction as part of the captured Japanese island of Okinawa. But they have been under Japanese jurisdiction since 1972 when Okinawa was returned to Japan.

Ownership of the Senkakus, as with other disputed islands in the South China Sea, brings with it rights over the increasingly important oil and natural gas fields on the seabed, as well as fishing rights.

Chinese naval vessels and fishing boats have been making an increasing number of visits to waters near the islands.

Japanese coast guard officials said this week that four Chinese surveillance vessels briefly intruded into Japan's territorial waters near the islands, Kyodo reported.

The Japanese government lodged a formal protest with Beijing over the territorial intrusions, the third intrusion since the government's announcement that it would nationalize the Senkakus on Sept. 11, the Kyodo report said.

But China remains resolute in its stand over the islands.

"Japan must bear full responsibility for all the consequences" of its nationalization of Senkaku Islands, Hong said.

"The two sides should have used this opportunity to push forward bilateral relations.

"However, the Japanese government single-mindedly took the action of illegally purchasing the Diaoyu Islands, which is a gross violation of China's territorial sovereignty and hurt the Chinese people's feelings."

Kyodo also reported that Japan's coast guard this week warned away around 50 Taiwanese fishing boats sailing close to Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands.

Tokyo and Beijing are hostages to Chinese public opinion in a spat over disputed islands that shows no sign of ending, analysts say, warning the longer it goes on, the higher the chances of the situation escalating out of control.

And Taiwan's forceful entry into the fray over the Japanese-controlled archipelago this week serves to underscore how isolated Tokyo has become, with its forlorn hope that Washington will one day ride to the rescue.

A meeting of Japanese and Chinese foreign ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York late Tuesday was described as "severe" and appeared to have achieved little towards easing tensions.

A major obstacle, said Mitsuyuki Kagami, professor of Chinese political thought at Japan's Aichi University, is that the Chinese leadership has been backed into a corner.

"China's top leaders have been trying to contain hawkish factions in the Communist party and the military, but nationalist fervour has now reached a point where it is not easily controllable," he said.

The country's military had been revving up for a robust response to Japan's impending nationalisation of what Tokyo calls the Senkakus and Beijing knows as the Diaoyus, he said.

Political leaders had been able to keep a lid on this, even after Japanese nationalists planted their flag on one of the islands in August.

President Hu Jintao and leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping "remained silent on the disputes until the September 9 meeting" between Hu and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, he said.

"But Japan made Hu lose face, because just two days after he protested Tokyo's planned nationalisation in a comment widely reported in China, Japan went through with the act."

The Chinese leadership now fears that unless they can come away from the fight having won concessions from Japan, they will look weak and public anger currently directed at Tokyo will turn on them, he said.

Beijing-based Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Northeast Asia project director at the International Crisis Group, writing in Foreign Policy earlier this month said rising nationalism in China, which has seen sometimes violent protests against Japan "restricts China's future options to dial down the situation".

"For all the government's efforts at censorship and control, the Internet has given the Chinese public unprecedented access to information (and) commentary, eroding Beijing's control over the ebb and flow of nationalist sentiment.

"Internet users can now track Chinese law enforcement vessels via satellite photos, mocking and criticising the government when they stop short of disputed waters," she wrote.

A duel with water cannon near the islands on Tuesday when Japan's coastguard confronted dozens of Taiwanese fishing boats that were accompanied by official coastguard ships was a worrying turn for Tokyo, said Thomas Berger, a specialist in international relations at Boston University.

Taiwan's involvement "is profoundly troubling" as "it underlines Japan's growing isolation in the region", he said.

Japan is also involved in a battle with South Korea over the ownership of a different set of islands in the Sea of Japan, a stretch of water Koreans know as the East Sea.

"The only resource Japan feels it has left is the United States, and Japanese expectations that the US will come to its rescue are rising rapidly. So too is the potential for disappointment," said the East Asia specialist.

Washington faces a dilemma over the issue as it "does not want to encourage reckless Japanese behaviour or damage already strained Sino-US ties.

"At the same time it cannot maintain a geo-strategic presence in Asia, and thus hedge against China's becoming an expansionist power, without Japan," he said.

China is pushing for a "new normal" around the disputed islands, where its official ships can come and go with impunity, said Kagami.

And the increased frequency of Chinese patrols that this entails, along with a continuing Japan Coast Guard presence raises the chance of something going awry, said the ICG's Kleine-Ahlbrandt.

"Although the two countries have dealt with past run-ins -- such as when the Japanese Coast Guard arrested a Chinese skipper in 2010 after his boat collided with a Japanese vessel -- and succeeded in cooling tensions, the current situation is of a different order," she wrote.

"That act could be attributed to an overzealous Chinese fisherman. But now, a skirmish between official law enforcement vessels in the current context could prove irresolvable."

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Chinese ships plied the waters of a disputed island chain Monday, Japan's coastguard said, as a fleet of Taiwanese fishing boats set sail for the area, vowing to stake Taipei's claim. The flotilla, set to arrive Tuesday, will further complicate an already precarious confrontation between Tokyo and Beijing, in which Japan's prime minister has warned China's behaviour could damage its own econ ... read more


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