North Korea fires ICBM as US, Seoul slam Russia deployment

North Korea fires ICBM as US, Seoul slam Russia deployment
By Claire Lee and Cat Barton
Seoul (AFP) Oct 31, 2024

North Korea said Thursday it had test-fired one of its newest and most powerful missiles to boost its nuclear deterrent, Kim Jong Un's first weapons test since being accused of sending soldiers to Russia.

Seoul had warned a day earlier that the nuclear-armed North was preparing to test-fire another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or even conduct a nuclear test ahead of next week's US elections.

The launch came just hours after US and South Korean defence chiefs called on Pyongyang to withdraw its troops from Russia, warning that North Korean soldiers in Russian uniforms were being deployed for possible action against Ukraine.

"The initial judgment so far is that (Pyongyang) may have test-fired a new solid-propelled long-range ballistic missile," Seoul's military said, adding the missile had flown around 1,000 kilometres (621 miles) after being fired on a lofted trajectory -- meaning up, not out.

Developing advanced solid-fuel missiles -- which are quicker to launch and harder to detect and destroy in advance -- has long been a goal for Kim.

North Korea defended the sanctions-busting launch, calling it "an appropriate military action that fully meets the purpose of informing the rivals... of our counteraction will," the official Korean Central News Agency reported Kim as saying.

The test "updated the recent records of the strategic missile capability," of North Korea, it said, with Kim vowing his country "will never change its line of bolstering up its nuclear forces".

Tokyo said that the "ICBM-class" missile had flown for longer than any other previously tested by the North, being airborne for about 86 minutes and hitting altitudes of 7,000 kilometres.

"We estimate that its flying altitude was the highest we have seen," Japanese defence minister Gen Nakatani told reporters.

Washington slammed the launch as "a flagrant violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions", National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said in a statement.

Beijing's foreign ministry said Thursday that it was "concerned about developments on the (Korean) peninsula," and urged a "political resolution" to the issue.

Seoul, Washington and Tokyo -- key regional security allies -- will respond with joint military drills involving US strategic assets, Seoul said.

South Korean President Yook Suk Yeol also said the country would "designate new independent sanctions" on the North and work with partners and the UN to penalise Pyongyang's "habitual violations of Security Council resolutions."

- Diverting attention? -

North Korea's missile launch "seems to have been carried out to divert attention from international criticism of its troop deployment," Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told AFP.

Seoul has long accused the nuclear-armed North of sending weapons to help Moscow fight Kyiv and alleged that Pyongyang has moved to deploy soldiers en mass in the wake of Kim Jong Un's signing of a mutual defence deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June.

The troop deployment poses a "significant security threat", Seoul has said, with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday calling on the North to pull their troops out.

South Korea's military had warned lawmakers the day before that preparations were "nearly complete for an ICBM-class long-range missile" and that a launch could be aimed at testing the North's atmospheric reentry technology.

Seoul has warned that Russia may be providing new technology or expertise to Pyongyang in return for weapons and troops to help them fight Ukraine.

It is possible "Russia actually provided new technology for re-entering the atmosphere," Ahn Chan-il, a defector-turned-researcher who runs the World Institute for North Korea Studies, told AFP.

But it is more likely that Thursday's test was a bid to distract from the troop deployment and get "the world's attention ahead of the US presidential election" Ahn added.

Seoul, a major weapons exporter, has said it is reviewing whether to send weapons directly to Ukraine in response, something it has previously resisted due to longstanding domestic policy that prevents it from sending weaponry into active conflicts.

North Korea has denied sending troops to Russia, but in the first comment in state media last week, its vice foreign minister said that if such a deployment were to happen, it would be in line with international law.

Pyongyang is banned from tests using ballistic technology by multiple rounds of UN sanctions, but leader Kim has ramped up launches this year, with experts warning he could be testing weaponry before providing it to Russia.

Solid-fuel ICBM? What we know about Kim Jong Un's arsenal
Seoul (AFP) Oct 31, 2024 - North Korea said Thursday it had test-fired one of its newest and most powerful weapons to boost its nuclear deterrent, with Seoul warning it could be a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile.

AFP takes a look at what we know:

What is a solid-fuel missile?

Solid-fuel missiles are powered by a chemical mixture which is cast into the missile's airframe when it is built -- like a firecracker rocket, ready to go.

In contrast, liquid-fuelled missiles typically require that the fuel and an oxidiser be inserted before they can be fired -- a slower and more cumbersome process.

For leader Kim Jong Un's purposes, this creates "a time period for South Korea to detect and target preemptively before the launch," said Han Kwon-hee of the Korea Association of Defence Industry Studies.

This is the whole premise of South Korea's so-called "Kill Chain" defence system, Han said.

That is why Kim wants solid fuel missiles.

"It allows for rapid launches with minimal preparation," Han said, adding that they can be deployed "almost instantly".

Why is Kim testing it now?

Analysts have speculated North Korea timed the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test as a response to accusations by the United States and South Korea that it is sending thousands of soldiers to Russia to help fight Ukraine.

Seoul had warned that a North Korean missile launch or even a nuclear test was imminent ahead of next week's US election.

The ICBM launch is part of North Korea's effort to "reframe its troop deployment to Russia as a legitimate response to the threat posed by the United States," Hong Min, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told AFP.

Seoul says that in addition to dispatching troops to Russia, Pyongyang has sent 13,000 shipping containers full of artillery shells, anti-tank rockets and missiles.

So what's the message?

North Korea claims the launch on Thursday was a "very crucial" test of an ICBM.

Such missiles have a minimum range of 5,500 kilometres (3,400 miles) and are primarily designed to deliver nuclear warheads -- which allows Kim to threaten the US.

The launch "demonstrates that Russia and North Korea, as nuclear-armed states, possess the capability to operate strategic nuclear weapons against the United States," Hong said.

Kim may be signalling to Washington that "the North Korea-Russia alliance is, in essence, a nuclear alliance."

Do Kim's ICBMs work?

North Korea claimed to have successfully tested its first ICBM in 2017 -- the Hwasong-14, a missile capable of reaching Alaska -- and has rolled out bigger and more powerful weapons since.

North Korea fired what has become known as the "monster missile" in November 2022, and tested a solid-fuel ICBM last year.

The record-breaking ICBM launch on Thursday "reached an altitude of 7,000 km and flew for 1 hour and 26 minutes," South Korean lawmaker Yu Yong-weon, who sits on the defence committee in parliament, wrote on Facebook.

"This makes Thursday's launch the longest ever by North Korea, and possibly by any country," Seoul-based specialist site NK News reported.

The duration and altitude indicate the North "tried to evaluate whether a heavy multiple-warhead ICBM can indeed reach the US mainland," Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told AFP.

All of North Korea's ICBMs -- including Thursday's launch -- have been test-fired on a lofted trajectory -- meaning up not out.

Experts question whether they could survive reentry into the atmosphere and prove accurate over greater ranges.

What else has Kim got?

His arsenal is substantial: cruise missiles, intermediate-range ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and even a submarine-launched ballistic missile -- although experts say Pyongyang's exact sea-based launch capabilities remain unclear.

North Korea has also conducted six previous nuclear tests, with South Korea's military telling lawmakers this week that the North could again attempt "to highlight nuclear issues before the US presidential election."

Kim toured a uranium enrichment facility in September -- with state media releasing images of it for the first time -- and Seoul has said "preparations at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County are nearly complete," for a seventh test.

By flexing its military muscles, Kim is sending a clear message to Washington, experts said.

By successfully test-firing a solid-fuel mission "it could enable surprise ICBM attacks on US territories without prior warning," Kim Ki-ho, a North Korean studies expert who teaches at Seoul Christian University, told AFP.

"This effort is aimed at enhancing their negotiating power, regardless of who wins the upcoming US presidential election."