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North Korea set as Obama's tough first foreign crisis
Washington (AFP) April 1, 2009 North Korea's expected rocket launch is set to confront US President Barack Obama with his first major foreign crisis and it is one that comes with few easy options, analysts say. Experts say Obama will feel politically obliged to act tough, although he ultimately has little choice but to push for a resumption of talks to end the communist state's nuclear program. North Korea says it will launch a satellite between April 4 and 8, defying warnings from the United States and its allies which believe Pyongyang is testing a long-range missile that could hit Alaska. Pyongyang has warned that if the UN Security Council takes up the test, it would end six-nation talks on ending its nuclear program. "The North Koreans are actually quite stupid. It's not necessarily wise to be the first country to test Obama's resolve," said Gordon Flake, a Korea expert who advised Obama during his campaign. The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), an arms control group, said that commercial satellite imagery suggests North Korea is no longer trying to hide the shape of the suspected missile, as "the missile is clearly visible" in an image of the launch site taken Sunday. Flake, executive director of the Mansfield Foundation think-tank, said the Obama administration would want to focus "on the real priorities," namely the global financial crisis, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran. "But the louder North Korea is and the more they make this a big issue in the six-party talks, the less political leeway the Obama administration has," he said. Pyongyang stepped up its rhetoric Wednesday, threatening to shoot down any US spy planes if they violated its airspace to monitor the imminent launch. But Flake predicted an eventual resumption of the six-way talks, which involve China, Japan, the two Koreas, Russia and the United States. Even after North Korea tested an atom bomb in 2006, the international outcry helped pave the way for fresh talks that reached an aid-for-disarmament deal within months, he noted. But the agreement deadlocked as Washington pressed Pyongyang to verify it was giving up its nuclear program. Obama's predecessor George W. Bush held out hope until the last minute for progress, despite protests from so-called neoconservatives such as his vice president, Dick Cheney. Hardliners have not left Washington. Ashton Carter, a strong advocate of nuclear non-proliferation named by Obama as an undersecretary of defense, had argued in 2006 for a preemptive military strike on North Korea as it prepared another -- ultimately failed -- long-range missile test. "I think the current administration has its own faultlines. Instead of neocons, it's the non-proliferation folks," said Peter Beck, a professor at American University. The International Crisis Group has appealed for calm from the United States and Japan -- which has tense ties with Pyongyang -- about the launch, warning that an "overblown" international response could "jeopardize" nuclear disarmament talks and even spark a war. Any use of missile defenses against the rocket could in the worst case "risk a war with potentially devastating damage to South Korea, Japan and the world economy," it said in a report. The conflict prevention group urged Obama to send a high-level envoy to Pyongyang to present leader Kim Jong-Il with "an overall package" in exchange for nuclear and missile disarmament. Bruce Klingner of the conservative Heritage Foundation rejected such an approach, saying that Obama should be firm in insisting North Korea live up to denuclearization promises made in the six-nation talks. Offering concessions "is akin to urging a farmer who has lost every hand of poker against a wily dealer to go all in and bet his homestead in hopes of winning it all back -- and more -- on one hand," he said.
earlier related report The United States and its allies see this as a pretext for a "provocative" test of a long-range missile, and say they will take a launch to the Security Council as a breach of UN resolutions. Pyongyang, however, calculates that it has little to lose and much to gain in terms of strengthening its bargaining hand with Washington and shoring up the regime's domestic support, analysts say. China and Russia would likely block any bid to tighten largely ineffective UN sanctions, imposed after the North's missile and nuclear tests in 2006 and which ban ballistic missile tests. Pyongyang, which has said it will launch a communications satellite between April 4 and 8, has also signed up to international space exploration treaties, further complicating any sanctions drive. It says even a debate at the Security Council would trigger the collapse of six-nation nuclear disarmament talks and provoke "strong measures" -- seen as a possible reference to a second nuclear test. Some analysts say hardliners, who appear to have gained in influence since the North's leader Kim Jong-Il reportedly suffered a stroke last August, would use any tough response as a pretext to scrap a denuclearisation deal. The North has shut down plants which produced weapons-grade plutonium, but efforts to move to the final phase of the pact are stalled. In this phase, it should hand over nuclear weapons and material in exchange for normalised US relations and permanent peace -- and that is a step certain to be resisted by elements of the military. The International Crisis Group (ICG) called in a report released Wednesday for a calm international response. "Even if the test is successful, it would only slightly increase security risks, while an overblown response would likely jeopardise" six-party talks, the group cautioned. "An over-reaction would encourage the hardliners in Pyongyang -- it's almost like they are setting a trap," said Daniel Pinkston, the ICG's senior analyst in Seoul. Top US officials have said a long-range Taepodong-2 missile could possibly reach Hawaii, potentially allowing North Korea to deliver a nuclear warhead to US territory in the future. But US Defence Secretary Robert Gates has voiced doubt the North could at present arm it with a nuclear warhead, even though that was its long-term intent. Japan has vowed to shoot down the rocket if it appears likely to fall onto Japanese territory, but Gates said the United States has no intercept plans. Pinkston said a rocket would not dramatically change the security outlook. It must be filled with liquid fuel over several days and launched from a tower in full view of spy satellites, meaning it could be destroyed on the launch pad in case of war. Missile launches in 1998 and 2006 were widely condemned, but diplomatic exchanges soon resumed. Pinkston said the upcoming launch "could be the trigger to start dialogue" with the new US administration. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has raised the prospect of the missile programme becoming part of the six-party dialogue. In abortive talks early this decade, the North demanded one billion dollars a year from the United States for halting missile exports. Clinton has also suggested that the North's bellicose rhetoric stems from a struggle over the eventual succession to Kim. "North Korea's most recent provocative actions are all an attempt to ensure the regime's survival and improve its bargaining position at international negotiations to gain concessions," General Walter Sharp, commander of US forces in South Korea, told a House Armed Services Committee hearing in March. A successful launch would be popular domestically, especially before South Korea's own satellite launch set for July, and would bolster the influence of 67-year-old Kim. A meeting of the new parliament has been scheduled for April 9. "The launch could be a strategy to rally the elite and public around Kim as he tries to put a succession plan in place," said Peter Beck, a professor at the American University in Washington DC. A launch "strengthens his hand in almost any way you can think of domestically," said Pinkston. Share This Article With Planet Earth
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Atlantic Eye: Branded by North Korea
Melbourne (UPI) Mar 30, 2009 He sits on stage -- gaunt, pale and uncomfortable. With each question, he winces and curls his lip -- pained by the intense memories. Born in North Korea's No. 14 Kaechon Political Prison Camp, it was the only life Shin Dong-hyuk had known until his escape. At 24, he was branded -- and already long abused -- by North Korea's despicable political system. |
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