North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile test Thursday exposed how thinly stretched US foreign policy risks becoming -- with the Ukraine war putting President Joe Biden's hoped-for pivot to Asia on the back burner.

The first test of Kim Jong Un's most powerful missile since 2017 was a rude reminder to Biden of his limited sway, even as he visits Europe to lead an impressive Western alliance in Brussels against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"Kim Jong Un has decided to try and embarrass the Biden administration while in Europe attending the NATO summit," said Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean Studies at the conservative Center for the National Interest.

The isolated dictator is "proving Pyongyang and its missiles aren't going away."

Biden took office in 2021 promising to deepen a decade-long shift of US focus from Europe and the Middle East to Asia, where China's rapidly expanding power represents what the White House sees as the 21st century's main strategic contest.

No one could have predicted that just over a year into his first term, Biden would find himself overseeing a confrontation with Russia that threatens to tear up the entire post-Cold War security landscape in Europe.

And while the Democrat may be getting plaudits for his handling of that European crisis, Asia looms uncomfortably.

Fearful that China will help Russia survive Western sanctions or even supply its war machine, Biden has been pushing hard to keep Beijing on the sidelines.

President Xi Jinping, for now, does appear to be holding back, but he is pointedly refusing to join Western outrage at the Kremlin's bloody campaign.

And after North Korea tested its huge missile on Thursday, the White House issued a routine condemnation, saying Kim "needlessly raises tensions." But, like China, North Korea appears confident enough not to care too much what the United States thinks.

- Nuclear reality -

Biden is hardly the first US president to fail in getting North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. His predecessor Donald Trump tried splashy personal diplomacy with Kim and got nowhere.

The Biden administration's repeated offers of more traditional negotiations are likewise in a dead end.

Terence Roehrig, an expert on the Korean conflict who teaches national security at the US Naval War College, says Kim's latest missile test may have been less "a grab for attention" as a logical step in a now unstoppable program.

"The test would have happened anyway. Kim has outlined he has certain capabilities," Roehrig said.

"Kim is determined to develop these capabilities. It requires testing to make sure it works and the chance of dialogue is pretty slim, until he completes" and is able to talk from "a position of strength," he said.

Calling the publicly stated US goal of denuclearization "highly unlikely" to be achieved, Roehrig said Washington will need to adapt to the reality where "managing" a nuclear North Korea is the only realistic option.

- China awaits -

Regardless of Europe's sudden reemergence as a top global crisis, the US pivot to Asia, first outlined when Biden was vice president to Barack Obama, is still set to proceed, analysts say.

"While Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the tremendous diplomatic efforts in that front clearly will continue to consume the Biden administration, the US has no choice but to continue looking toward Asia," said Paul Fritz, who teaches political science at Hofstra University.

"Given the challenges China's continued rise pose for the US and its allies, Biden must balance long-term strategic interests in Asia with the challenges of a resurgent Russia."

Roehrig said Russia had "complicated" the picture, but the US government has the bandwidth to cope.

Last year's US agreement to sell nuclear submarines to Australia, an ongoing series of long video conversations between Biden and Xi, and the coming summit in Japan of the Quad countries -- Australia, India, Japan, and the US -- are evidence that the pivot is already happening.

North Korea has just underlined that Biden has no choice.

The test shows Kim's thinking is that "we have to have our own independent nuclear deterrent," Roehrig said. "They will continue to test."

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Russia would only use nuclear weapons faced with 'existential threat': Kremlin
Washington (AFP) March 22, 2022
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