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Rice Says Euro-Russia Will Accept Missile Shield As Gates Says Kremlin Divided

Moscow has angrily denounced the plan to base US anti-missile systems in the two former Soviet satellites as a strategic threat to Russia itself. Washington says the system is designed to protect Europe from ballistic missile strikes by states like Iran or North Korea. Photo courtesy AFP.
by David Millikin
Oslo (AFP) April 25, 2007
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice voiced optimism Wednesday that European allies and Russia would ultimately accept a controversial US plan to station anti-missile bases in eastern Europe.

Rice, who arrived in Oslo late Wednesday for talks with her NATO and Russian counterparts, told reporters accompanying her that many of the concerns expressed by Russia and some Europeans about the project reflected Cold War era fears that were no longer relevant.

"We have to demystify some of the things that are being said about it," Rice said of the proposal to station 10 non-explosive missile interceptors in Poland and a tracking radar in the Czech Republic.

The plan is due to feature prominently during a day of talks here Thursday, among the 26 NATO allies and between NATO and Russia.

Moscow has angrily denounced the plan to base US anti-missile systems in the two former Soviet satellites as a strategic threat to Russia itself.

Washington says the system is designed to protect Europe from ballistic missile strikes by states like Iran or North Korea.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates tried to assuage Russian concerns during a visit to Moscow this week, when he renewed and expanded US offers to cooperate actively with the Russians on missile defence matters.

Russian leaders responded cooly, questioning the actual threat posed by Iran and possible future changes that could redirect the US system towards Russia.

While the governments of Poland and the Czech Republic largely support the plan -- negotiations over details are continuing -- the public has been wary, with recent opinion polls showing most people in both countries oppose the idea.

Rice said she was confident both the European public and the Russians could be convinced the missile shield is in their interests given the potential proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

"It's simply not possible that this could be considered a system that could in any way threaten the Russian strategic deterrent. It's just not capable of doing so," she said.

Rice said recent intensive efforts to explain the US plan to allied governments in Europe had largely eased their concerns, and that she expected the public to follow.

"Now that there's a better understanding at official levels ... that we're talking about the defence of Europe and the defence of the United States againt rogue threats, I think you'll start to see that people want to be defended," she said. "We're going to have to talk about the facts as well as talk about people's perceptions of the system," she said.

"Why would you leave yourself defenceless to an Iranian or North Korean missile?" she asked. "It simply doesn't make sense."

Rice also vowed to pursue an already months-long effort to convince Russia that the program is not the kind of threat that may have been posed by anti-ballistic missile systems that targeted strategic Soviet forces in the Cold War era.

"There's probably still a bit of the perspective from the Cold War when the nature of strategic relations was one in which some believed that defences could be a part of a first strike/second strike capability," she said.

"That's not the kind of system or the strategic environment today, but perhaps there are echos that are a bit of a hangover and we've got to get past it and look at the world as it is and not as it was," she said, adding that the United States is "not Russia's adversary any longer."

She also vowed to address Russian concerns "about what a possible follow-on system might look like -- the so-called breakout potential.

"We're prepared to talk to them about that too, because this is against a very limited threat. That's what it's intended to be."

earlier related report
Gates says Russian government divided on missile defence
by Jim Mannion
Berlin (AFP) April 25 - US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday Russian leaders are divided over how to respond to a US offer to partner with Moscow on missile defence in Europe.

Gates brushed off criticism by two senior Russian officials since his visit to Moscow on Monday to discuss the US proposals for wide-ranging cooperation on missile defence to counter a potential threat from Iran, saying it was unsurprising.

"There clearly have to be divisions in Moscow on how to respond, frankly," Gates told reporters here after briefing German officials on his talks in Moscow and Poland, the proposed site of a US missile defence site in Europe.

"We've made a very forthcoming offer to partner with the Russians," he said.

Gates cited an invitation to visit US missile defence sites, the sharing of missile warning data and even the possible co-location of a missile radar in Russia.

Gates on Tuesday said the United States also was prepared to negotiate limits to the future capability of the missile defence system to ensure it posed no threat to the Russian deterrent.

"So we've made some very hard-hitting proposals and so I have no doubt there is some debate in Moscow on how to respond," he said, adding that perhaps the Russians thought he had characterised the meetings "too warmly."

But Gates said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, one of the critics, had not attended the talks in Moscow and General Yuri Balyevsky, the chief of the Russian general staff, was not present for all of them.

"We clearly see that the US anti-missile defence shield is being created to target Russia and we will never take part in it," Balyevsky told a news conference in Moscow on Tuesday.

Lavrov called for a joint analysis of the threat and complained, "One gets the impression that everything has already been decided in Washington."

"We don't really see a way of joining the project, we don't see what interest there is in that," he told reporters after meeting with European leaders in Luxembourg.

Gates met in Berlin with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Defence Minister Franz Josef Jung during a brief stopover.

Jung, a supporter of the US missile defence plan, said he was confident that US-Russian discussions would continue at working group level.

"The fears voiced by Russia are completely unfounded," he said

Germany, nevertheless, has urged Washington to engage Russia on its concerns about US plans to deploy 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic by 2012.

The four billion dollar (2.93 billion euro) project is aimed at countering a potential missile threat from Iran, not Russia.

But it has antagonised Moscow, which sees it as a further military encroachment in its former sphere of influence, and has aroused misgivings among some European allies.

On Tuesday in Warsaw, Gates said he did not believe that Russia is a military threat to Poland "either now or should we install a missile defence."

"The world changes in dramatic ways, and what we are talking about here is indivisible security for the United States and for our NATO allies," he said.

"We would like to extend that umbrella to Russia and partner with Russia and have Russia be with us in this program," he said.

Poland's conservative government, led by the president's twin brother, Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has signalled its willingness to host the base, but formal negotiations between Washington and Warsaw have not yet begun.

Polish Defence Minister Alexander Szczyglo, who joined Gates in a news conference in Warsaw, said his government was prepared to host the missile defence site if it enhances Poland's security.

"The success of negotiations depends on one thing: negotiations can be successful if the level of Poland's security is increased" by housing the system, Szczyglo said.

Gates has invited the Russians to inspect a US missile defence interceptor site in Fort Greely, Alaska and a radar in California to clear up what he said were Russian misunderstandings about the capability of the system being proposed for Europe.

"In terms of assurances that the system would not be changed years from now in a way that might be more threatening to the Russian deterrent, it seems to me that is a matter that can be negotiated," he said.

Gates provided no details and it was unclear whether the scope of such negotiations would involve the broader US missile defence system, or only the proposed European component.

earlier related report
Czech leader starts Russian visit dominated by missile defence rift
by Chris Johnstone
Prague (AFP) April 25 - Czech President Vaclav Klaus starts a four-day state visit to Russia Thursday with relations strained by Prague's willingness to host part of an expanded US missile defence shield.

Russian hostility to the controversial US project for a tracking radar in the Czech Republic and 10 interceptor missiles in neighbouring Poland is set to dominate the meeting between Klaus and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Friday.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to redouble US attempts to overcome Russian opposition to US bases on its doorstep in Eastern Europe during an informal meeting of NATO and Russian foreign ministers in Oslo on Thursday.

That encounter follows Moscow's rebuff to US Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Monday after he delivered fresh assurances that the defensive shield is aimed at Iran's growing threat and not Russia's established nuclear arsenal.

The head of the US missile defence agency, General Henry Obering, admitted in Prague earlier this week that while Washington had largely won over European missile defence doubters, including key NATO member Germany, Moscow had still to be convinced amid warnings the project was reviving Cold War tensions.

"I would not give up. This is going to take time," Obering explained during a press conference. "We see Iran continuing to develop as they are. And I believe that that wake-up call will hit sooner or later that we have to do something about this with the Russians as well," he said.

"Hopefully that will be a catalyst that will help us," he added.

While admitting that the United States has other options besides the Czech and Polish bases, Obering underlined that the two former Soviet satellites, now staunch US allies, were geographically ideal for defending against a possibile Iranian missile attack on Europe and America.

Obering's packed one-day series of meetings with Klaus, Czech politicians and Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, was aimed at explaining "what the missile system can and cannot do" as Washington seeks to convince local lawmakers to hurry up and approve its project amid fears of "a growing Iranian threat."

While Topolanek's fragile centre-right coalition approved launching negotiations with Washington over siting the radar station on Czech soil last month, parliament will have the decisive say with the coalition uncertain of a majority.

Recent Czech surveys have shown public opinion polarising over the US base with a rising proportion of people opposed. A poll by the CVVM institute on Tuesday showed 68.0 percent against in April, compared with 61.0 percent in February, with 77.0 believing a referendum should be held on the issue.

But Russian threats of retaliation against Prague and Warsaw if they go ahead and host the US defence system, have stirred up resentment that Moscow is attempting to reexert its sway over its former satellites.

Topolanek denounced some Russian fears over the defensive shield as "irrational" in a joint news conference with Obering following a meeting of the country's National Security Council, the top defence and security decision-making body.

Klaus took part in the initial council meeting that approved the first steps towards hosting the US radar in January and has since backed the deployment of the missile shield as a defence of "the free world". He insists that it is not aimed at Russia.

"Missile defence is the main issue in Czech-Russian relations at the moment, but I do not expect a breakthrough from Klaus' visit," Charles University, Prague, lecturer in contemporary Russia, Karel Svoboda, told AFP.

"The problem is that Russia feels that NATO and the US are getting closer and closer to its borders," he explained, adding that the actual military threat posed to Russia by the extension of the anti-missile shield is negligible.

earlier related report
Gates winds up missile defence push in Germany
by Jim Mannion
Berlin (AFP) April 25 - US Defence Secretary Robert Gates held talks in Germany Wednesday on US plans for missile defences in two former Warsaw Pact states and Russian resistance to the scheme, at the end of a European tour.

Gates flew from Warsaw to brief senior German officials on a US offer to work closely with Moscow and negotiate limits that would ensure the shield would not pose a threat to Russia's nuclear deterrence.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Defence Minister Franz Josef Jung were meeting with Gates during his brief stopover in Berlin.

Jung said in an interview with the daily Saechsische Zeitung published Wednesday that he was confident the United States could alleviate Russia's concerns.

Russia can be convinced of the necessity of the missile defence system "by explaining to them that there is a shared interest in security against missiles -- for example from rogue states," Jung said.

He added that the United States had made Russia "a very far-reaching offer to compromise in building a limited missile shield for Europe" and that further talks between Russian and US defence experts were now needed.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has urged Washington to engage Russia on its concerns about US plans to deploy 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic by 2012.

The four-billion-dollar project is aimed at countering a potential missile threat from Iran, not Russia.

But it has antagonized Moscow, which sees it as a further military encroachment in its former sphere of influence, and has aroused misgivings among some European allies.

On Tuesday in Warsaw, Gates said he did not believe that Russia was a military threat to Poland "either now or should we install a missile defence."

"The world changes in dramatic ways, and what we are talking about here is indivisible security for the United States and for our NATO allies," he said.

"We would like to extend that umbrella to Russia and partner with Russia and have Russia be with us in this program," he said.

Poland's conservative government, led by the president's twin brother, Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has signaled its willingness to host the base, but formal negotiations between Washington and Warsaw have not yet begun.

Polish Defence Minister Alexander Sczyglo, who joined Gates in a news conference, said Warsaw was prepared to host the missile defence site if it enhances Poland's security.

"The conditions of success in this negotiation is only one. These negotiations can be successful if the level of balanced security is thus increased," Sczyglo said, speaking through an interpreter.

Gates, who started the trip Monday in Moscow, has invited the Russians to inspect a US missile defence interceptor site in Fort Greely, Alaska and a radar in California to clear up what he said was Russian misunderstanding about the capability of the system being proposed for Europe.

"In terms of assurances that the system would not be changed years from now in a way that might be more threatening to the Russian deterrent, it seems to me that is a matter that can be negotiated," he said.

Gates provided no details and it was unclear whether the scope of such negotiations would involve the broader US missile defence system, or only the proposed European component.

earlier related report
US And NATO in new push to persuade Russia of missile threat
by Lorne Cook
Brussels (AFP) April 25 - NATO foreign ministers led by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will endeavour Thursday to impress upon Russia the size of the missile threat posed to Europe by a "rogue state" like Iran.

At informal talks in the Norwegian capital Oslo, Rice will argue that Washington must quickly expand its defence shield to be able to counter a future attack by ballistic missiles, possibly with nuclear warheads.

"Where there is a divergence is how quickly the Iranians could acquire the ability to fly further, faster and more reliably," a senior US official said ahead of the meeting.

"We will continue to talk to Russia about why we come to the analysis that we come to, but we don't think we have the luxury of waiting and seeing," the official said.

The United States announced in January plans to extend its shield into Europe, with 10 non-explosive interceptors installed in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic, linked to an early warning system probably in the Caucasus.

Russia, increasingly assertive in an election year, is rankled by its former Cold War foe basing military hardware in former Soviet satellite states, and claims the move, apart from posing a danger, could start a new arms race.

Despite a US offer of increased military cooperation and to share early warning data, Moscow is concerned that the shield might grow in the future.

"We know from experience that when you have a system it keeps developing, it cannot stop," Russia's ambassador to NATO, Konstantin Totsky, warned last week.

While Russia does see Iran as a potential security problem it does not exactly share the US analysis of what the Islamic republic's missile capabilities are now, not to mention what they might be in a decade.

"What we see in the American offer are several aims which do not address the principal, that is a joint analysis of the threat," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday.

But NATO's 26 member countries agreed last week that Iran, and to a lesser extent North Korea, do indeed pose a potential missile threat to Europe.

And Washington has set a tight schedule for building the new installations, when talks with the Poles and Czechs have been completed, and wants the project started before US President George W. Bush steps down late next year.

"Even if we were successful in meeting our timeline, finishing our bilateral negotiations relatively quickly the system wouldn't be completely operational before 2013," the US official said, explaining the apparent haste.

To overcome the objections of Russia, which the NATO allies are adamant will not be allowed to veto the project, the US has agreed to set up a "bilateral working group" of experts to allay fears that the shield might grow.

"As we go forward with this expert group I am quite confident that we will be able to give Russia the kind of reassurances that will make her comfortable with regard to future, potential breakout concerns," the official said.

Within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation differences also persist over the US shield, notably on the fact that it would not cover members like Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and Turkey and the need to consult more with Russia.

In an effort to provide broader coverage, the alliance is studying whether it could "bolt on" its own theatre missile defences -- a short to medium range system normally used to protect troops and still being tested -- to the shield.

Source: Agence France-Presse

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