DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Scientists examine human decisions that influence climate reconstructions
by Brooks Hays
Washington DC (UPI) Jun 7, 2021

In a new double-blind study, different groups of climate scientists working with the same data produced climate reconstructions with key differences.

The experiment -- detailed Monday in the journal Nature Communications -- was designed by researchers at the University of Cambridge to highlight the influence of human decision making on climate reconstructions and global warming projections.

To start, Cambridge researchers recruited respected climate scientists from research institutions around the globe.

Ulf Buentgen, a professor of environmental systems analysis at Cambridge, wrote to scientists, asking them via email to help generate "independent evidence to asses the role of subjectivity, data robustness and methodological scrutiny in climate science."

Each scientist's contributions, he told them, would be anonymized and "treated equally as an ensemble member."

Those who agreed to participate were given raw tree-ring data and asked to reconstruct temperature changes over the past 2,000 years.

Their work showed differences in how each group selected and organized data -- as well as the analysis techniques they deployed -- influenced the idiosyncrasies of their final reconstruction.

While all of reconstructions were in general agreement about the trajectory of temperature changes over the last 2,000 years, they showed key differences in variance, amplitude and sensitivity.

Each reconstruction disagreed on exactly how much global temperatures rose during the Medieval warming period. The reconstructions also disagreed on the levels of global cooling following major volcanic eruptions.

"Despite notable differences in variance, amplitude and sensitivity, which can be attributed to decisions made by the researchers who built the individual reconstructions, each of the reconstructions clearly showed that recent anthropogenic warming is unprecedented in the past two thousand years," Buentgen told UPI in an email.

Every climate model features some level of uncertainty. Buentgen said he hopes the latest experiment can help climate modelers pinpoint the decisions that yield divergent reconstruction results.

If climate scientists are able to isolate important decisions, they could potential consider multiple options, produce divergent reconstructions and split the difference, he said.

"This is the first time the proxy community -- for example, dendroclimatologists -- have done such an experiment," Buentgen said.

Buentgen suggests climate modelers could simply recruit other research groups to analyze the same data sets and then combine their reconstructions.

"For the climate proxy community, we recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability," Buentgen said.


Related Links
Bringing Order To A World Of Disasters
A world of storm and tempest
When the Earth Quakes

DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Sri Lanka agent deleted vital e-mails: ship probe
Colombo (AFP) June 7, 2021
A Sri Lankan court hearing into the fire and sinking of a container ship off Colombo was told Monday that its local agent had deleted e-mails vital to the investigation. The Singapore-registered MV X-Press Pearl reported an onboard acid leak to its representative Sea Consortium Lanka who in turn failed to alert local authorities, the state prosecutor said. He said investigators found that Sea Consortium had wiped its e-mails with the Russian skipper Tyutkalo Vitaly. "The magistrate ordered t ... read more

Comment using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

DISASTER MANAGEMENT
USS Paul Ignatius fires Standard Missile-3 interceptors in test

MDA test does not intercept target

First modernized SBIRS Missile Warning Satellite under Space Force control

ULA postpones launch of missile detection satellite

DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Surveillance planes test Harpoon missiles in NATO exercise

French frigate downs supersonic missile in NATO exercise

Lockheed Martin tests Navy's Hypersonic Strike System

Marines' 24th MEU deploys with HIMARS rocket system

DISASTER MANAGEMENT
AFRL completes Golden Horde Collaborative Small Diameter Bomb flight demonstrations

Northrop Grumman Maritime Autonomous system surpasses 40,000 flight hours

Europe's Future unmanned Combat Air System

Poland becomes first NATO country to buy Turkish drones

DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Quantum communication in space moves ahead

Bad connections: US-China defense relations mired in call dispute

SES Government Solutions provides medium earth orbit satellite services for combatant command

STPSat-6 safely arrives in Florida

DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Oshkosh Defense wins potential $942.9M contract for Stryker armaments

Marine Corps ends involvement in tank warfare

N.C. National Guard unit first to use new Army M109A7 Paladin howitzer

Air Force demonstrates value of rapid prototyping at Emerald Warrior

DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Fall in French arms sales blamed on pandemic

Israel says military exports hit $8.3 bn in 2020

Austin, Milley say $715B defense budget is ample for DoD's needs

GAO report: Lack of data causing delays in military spare parts contracts

DISASTER MANAGEMENT
US condemns 'escalatory' Chinese military flights off Malaysia and Taiwan

Belarus tensions show need to boost NATO, Berlin says

U.S., partners fly over all 30 NATO nations

11 NATO members participate in Exercise Steadfast Defender 2021

DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Nano-Bio Materials Consortium introduces new AFRL-Industry Co-Development Program

Nanostructured device stops light in its tracks

Scientists use DNA technology to build tough 3D nanomaterials