If this is so, the much-abused Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) may be buried - what's the point of having a treaty that is so easy to breach? Moreover, even the UN Security Council is unable to uphold it.

On March 24, it approved Resolution 1747, providing for tougher sanctions compared with the previous resolution and giving Iran 60 days to stop all uranium enrichment. If you believe Iranian officials, a total of 1,600 centrifuges are currently in operation at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Upon the expiry of this deadline, ElBaradei should submit to the Security Council a report on Iran's compliance with the resolution.

When the resolution was adopted, Iran had two cascades with 164 centrifuges each. Iran has refused to stop uranium enrichment. In order to reach an industrial level of nuclear fuel production for its nuclear power plants, Tehran intends to launch 3,000 centrifuges. The Iranian leaders have declared their intention to have more than 50,000 centrifuges up and running in order to meet the requirements of their civilian nuclear power industry.

This is no bluff. The Natanz facility is designed for 54,000 centrifuges. They will be capable of producing the required amount of nuclear fuel for 20 nuclear units with an aggregate capacity of 20,000 megawatts that are mentioned in all of Iran's plans for its nuclear industry. The first unit is now under construction in Bushehr.

The experience of the Bushehr nuclear plant shows that the construction of 20 one-megawatt units will take decades. This is why experts are wondering why Iran is rushing to get 50,000 centrifuges if it does not even have the technology to handle enriched uranium. The very idea of starting industrial uranium enrichment on 3,000 centrifuges, not to mention the commissioning of the entire enrichment facility in Natanz, is counterproductive.

However, there are other calculations that allow one to look at this problem from another angle. Experts believe that 3,000 centrifuges can enrich uranium to the level of 80%-90% required for one nuclear bomb, whereas 50,000 can accomplish this task in five to seven weeks or two months at most.

These facts allow the West, especially the United States, Iran's main opponent, to accuse Tehran of trying to develop technology for producing weapons-grade uranium.

The world community will soon try to lure Iran back to the negotiating table. The UN Security Council is drafting its third resolution on Iran, and on May 31 Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, will meet Javier Solana, the EU's foreign and security policy chief, for a second round of talks.

However, these talks are giving rise to many questions. It seems that Solana, a skillful negotiator, does not really know what he wants from Iran. In turn, Iran is playing the same game - it does not know what the world should expect from it.

After the first round of the talks in Ankara in the latter half of April, Larijani and Solana reported progress in drawing up a common Iran-EU position. It is clear what progress Larijani had in mind. Since last March, Iran has increased its nuclear-enrichment capacity by five times! Moreover, Tehran adamantly rejects the idea of resuming talks with strings attached - Iran is supposed to stop all uranium enrichment if it wants to return to the negotiating table. The more centrifuges go into operation, the more confident and uncompromising Tehran's tone becomes.

But what did Javier Solana have in mind when he talked about progress?

Maybe, he thinks like ElBaradei, and for him progress means that he has also realized that it is no longer urgent to demand that Iran cease nuclear enrichment activities.

earlier related report
US issues nuclear warning to Iran as armada enters Gulf
Washington (AFP) May 24 - The United States threatened new UN sanctions to punish Iran's nuclear drive as it ratcheted up tensions with the biggest display of naval power in the Gulf in years.

Hours after a bristling US armada led by two aircraft carriers steamed into waters near Iran for exercises Wednesday, Iran defied the threats and pledged that its controversial atomic program was expanding.

"The enemies aim to prevent us from using peaceful nuclear technology, not for scientific reasons but because they want to eradicate the roots of the principles of the Islamic Republic," Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday.

"With God's help and power we are getting closer to our final aims because the enemy is exerting its last pressure on the Islamic republic and it will have no result," he said.

A day earlier, the UN nuclear watchdog said Iran was defying UN Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium and was expanding the work, leading the way for world powers to discuss a new sanctions package.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that Iran continues to enrich uranium, which can provide fuel for civilian reactors but also make nuclear bombs.

That prompted warnings from US officials of further UN punishment unless Iran curtails its nuclear development, which the Islamic republic insists is devoted to civilian energy.

"Iran is once again thumbing its nose at the international community," US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns said, even as US and Iranian envoys prepared for historic talks on Iraqi security in Baghdad next Monday.

Iran denied obstructing IAEA inspections, but White House national security spokesman Gordon Johndroe said the report by the UN atomic watchdog was damning.

The IAEA assessment "is a laundry list of Iran's continued defiance of the international community and shows that Iran's leaders are only furthering the isolation of the Iranian people," he said.

The US Navy said the Gulf exercises were not directed at Iran but Mustafa Alani, senior analyst with the UAE-based Gulf Research Center, said it was no coincidence the powerful flotilla arrived on the day of the IAEA report.

"The aim of this step, which coincides entirely with the end of the UN deadline (to suspend enrichment), is to send a clear message to Iran that a military option is available to Washington," Alani said.

The carriers USS John Stennis and USS Nimitz sailed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf along with a helicopter carrier and amphibious assault ships carrying an estimated 2,200 marines.

"From a historic point of view we haven't done this type of operation with this number of ships in a couple of years at least," said Commander Kevin Aandahl, a spokesman for the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.

"I guess what's significant here is them all coming at the same time."

In January, Washington said it planned to keep two carrier battle groups in the Gulf for months -- the first such deployment since 2003.

Alani said a sudden, unexpected outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran could be triggered by events in Iraq.

Ahead of Monday's talks, the United States said Iran was escalating a proxy war against US forces in Iraq as the two nations sparred verbally over a number of their nationals being detained by each other.

Iran has repeatedly demanded that the United States release five Iranians arrested by US forces in Iraq, while Washington has expressed outrage over the detentions of several Iranian-Americans in recent weeks.

The US-based Human Rights Watch accused Tehran of "holding Iranian-Americans as pawns in its crackdown on local Iranian civil society" and said "intelligence agents are trying to force (them) to make false confessions."

From Baghdad, US military spokesman Major General William Caldwell told CNN there was "very credible intelligence" that Shiite-majority Iran was funding Sunni extremists in Iraq, including for roadside bombings against US troops.

Three days after the Baghdad meeting, at the behest of the UN Security Council's five permanent members plus Germany, European Union foreign envoy Javier Solana is to hold talks with Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani.

Burns said Solana would renew a year-old offer from the powerful nations for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment in return for cooperation on nuclear energy.

"Should it turn down the offer again, I would think what you'd see is a strong drive" by the six powers "for a third sanctions resolution," he said.

earlier related report
Britain's next PM pressed on military action in Iran
London (AFP) May 26 - Britain's prime minister-in-waiting Gordon Brown refused Saturday to rule out military action against Iran over its programme of nuclear enrichment, the BBC reported.

Brown, seen as less hawkish than outgoing premier Tony Blair, said he believed that the Iranian nuclear row could be settled through "multi-lateral pressure."

Speaking in Bristol, western England, at a hustings event for the Labour party leadership, which he has already won, and deputy leadership, Brown was pressed on whether he would rule out military action.

But he would not give such an assurance, the broadcaster said.

The Press Association news agency reported Brown had called for a "peaceful settlement" to the situation and replied that multilateral action and economic sanctions were the best way forward when asked about the military option.

The United States has not ruled out taking military action against Iran over the disputed nuclear programme, while Britain has said that the use of force is not on the agenda.

Last week, Washington threatened new UN sanctions after the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency found that despite earlier measures, Iran continues to enrich uranium.

Iran denies any suggestion that it wants to develop nuclear weapons and insists its programme is for peaceful purposes.

Brown is due to replace Blair, who has stood shoulder-to-shoulder with the United States in neighbouring Iraq, on June 27.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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