The field is unusually wide this year, with no fewer than 165 candidates hoping to bag the prize, seen as the most desirable of all the Nobel awards.

But while punters cannot agree on a clear favourite, some have, literally, put their money on a winner, defending their choice with occasionally religious fervour.

"Pope John Paul II is the favourite. He has been promoting peace for 25 years and was opposed very early on to the invasion of Iraq by the Americans," said Gerard Daffy, betting specialist at online bookmakers www.centrebet.com.

John Paul II, 83, next week celebrates a quarter century as pope, amid concern about his health.

Commenting on rumours that the pope's health is deteriorating, Daffy points to the Nobel rule that forbids awarding the prize posthumously.

"Given the pontiff's poor health, this may be the Norwegian Nobel Committee's last chance to honour his tireless work," he said.

Centrebet will pay at 1.50 dollars for every dollar placed on the pope, while the odds for Vaclav Havel are 6-to-1, 11-to-1 for Irish rock singer Bono and 12 to 1 for Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva.

Further down the list are Iranian dissident Hashem Aghajari, the European Union (EU), French President Jacques Chirac, former UN weapons inspector Hans Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency head, Mohamed El Baradei.

Much further down are some of the main actors of the Iraq war: Australian Prime Minister John Howard (500 to 1), British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President George W. Bush, both at 200 to 1.

The fact that American pop singer Michael Jackson, at 100 to 1, gets better odds than any of them, speaks volumes.

Experts go for the same top duo as bookmakers, but in a different order: Their choice is Havel first, the pope second, followed by Brazil's Lula.

"This is the man of the century, not someone who has done something only the past one or two years. Havel is inspiring," said American Nobel-watcher Irwin Abrams.

Stein Toennesson, head of the Prio peace institute in Oslo, who initially backed the pope's chances, has now changed his mind and believes in Havel, "a man virtually everyone can agree is a man of peace and integrity".

If he wins the prize, this would be seen as a recognition not just of his presidency, but like last year's winner Jimmy Carter, of his entire life's work.

One of Europe's leading playwrights, Havel, a dissident voice and militant writer during the Prague spring of 1968, co-author of the human rights manifesto Charter 77 and political prisoner, was swept to power after Czecholosvakia's 1989 "Velvet Revolution".

Experts believe that awarding the prize to 67-year old Havel would send a special signal to eastern and central Europe's new democracies just as the European Union is on the verge of expanding eastwards with 10 new members.

According to Toennesson, this decision would allow the Nobel committee to indirectly honour the EU itself, a step that it has always avoided, not wishing to meddle in the internal affairs of Norway, where possible EU membership is highly controversial.

All bets will be off at 11.00 am (0900 GMT) on Friday when the Nobel institute announces its decision.

WAR.WIRE