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One year on, Russia still plays balancing act over Iraq
MOSCOW (AFP) Mar 11, 2004
Russia is playing a delicate balancing act a year after the Iraqi war's launch, eager to prove to Washington that it was justified in trying to avert the campaign but also hoping the argument does not cost Moscow its lucrative Iraqi oil deals.

President Vladimir Putin set the tone to Moscow's tricky game a year ago by keeping silent about the looming offensive for more than one month as the war clouds gathered.

Instead, he let his foreign minister, Igor Ivanov -- dismissed in Tuesday's Russian government reshuffle -- do the hard-line talking at the United Nations and other foreign venues.

Putin at the time was trying to build a friendship with President George W. Bush after pronouncing himself a sworn US ally after the September 11 terror strikes.

Yet domestic pressure was building on the government to try and avert a war on Russia's Soviet-era ally, which also owed it massive debts.

The investments of Russia's largest oil producer LUKoil in Iraq were under threat in case of war and the Russian energy sector was pushing firmly on the Kremlin to use its UN Security Council veto power to prevent the strikes.

Putin never used that veto. But amid fury from most corners of Russia's political spectrum, he condemned the campaign as a "serious political mistake" shortly after coalition troops struck.

He has since met with Bush on several occasions and the two have basically agreed to disagree and try to put the dispute behind them.

US administration officials say they are treating Russia's stance with greater understanding than that of fellow "anti-war" members France and Germany because of Putin's difficult position at home.

And Putin's comments concerning Iraq have grown more ardent as his expected reelection to a second term Sunday draws near and he plays up the nationalist card that helped him win the presidency so easily four years ago.

"There was no need for any operation and the current events confirm this," Putin declared this month.

"Terrorists are getting accustomed to Iraq. The longer this process continues, the more dangerous it becomes."

Some analysts think that Putin was personally insulted that Bush launched the campaign without closer consultations with Russia -- seen as Iraq's traditional ally in the region.

The war in Iraq "has had a great negative impact on our ties with the United States. Russia tried to play the role of a superpower which it can no longer afford," said Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the USA-Canada institute.

Timofei Bordachyov, chief editor of the "Russia in Global Politics" magazine, said Russia was "attempting to reaffirm itself as a (political) heavyweight."

Nevertheless, Washington has "forgiven" Moscow, Bordachyov said, referring to US foreign policy adviser Condoleezza Rice's call to "forgive Russia, ignore Germany and punish France."

Yet Russia's new position in Iraq remains uncertain. The end to the oil-for-food program has cost numerous companies here. And the United States initially threatened to bar Russia from taking part in Iraq's post-war reconstruction.

Its firms are now allowed to bid as sub-contractors. But the state of the LUKoil contract still remains unclear.

"Russia has kept a bitter aftertaste, it has lost its positions in Iraq," said Kremenyuk, saying that "this war has dealt a blow to Russia's energy interests in the region."

Bordachyov in turn downplayed Russia's losses, but warned that Russia obtaining Iraqi contracts "will depend on Russia rebuilding bridges with the United States, over sensitive issues such as nuclear cooperation with Iran."

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