Throughout the campaign, rumours have swirled of plots to destabilise the administration of whichever candidate wins.

One rumour which had wide circulation in March said that should the movie actor Fernando Poe win, he would be replaced with a 15-man military junta.

National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales Thursday turned the tables, accusing Poe supporters, military and ex-military of being behind a plot to discredit the election results should Arroyo win.

He gave no evidence to support the allegation but it underlined the delicate balance that exists between the military and the democractic process it is sworn to uphold in the Southeast Asian nation.

Of the five presidents since dictator Ferdinand Marcos fled 18 years ago, only one entered office via an election and left at the end of his six-year year term, Fidel Ramos.

Corazon Aquino's first post-Marcos government endured seven coup attempts while Joseph Estrada's term was cut short by a military coup backed by the country's elites in January 2001.

Ramos, a former deputy chief of staff under Marcos, had the advantage of having a strong military background, which enabled him to keep the armed forces in check.

For her part, Arroyo owes her political life to the military as without its support she would have found it difficult to oust the popularly elected former movie star Estrada.

Clarita Carlos, former head of the national Defence College and a political scientist with the University of the Philippines, said the military was deeply politicised.

"Some blame Marcos for that but the politicisation of the military happened well before Marcos. He only institutionalised it," she told AFP.

"The military today is as fractured as the society it is supposed to defend."

Carlos said there were elements within the military which openly supported Arroyo and there were those who supported her main challenger Fernando Poe.

Amando Doronila, a leading commentator on Philippine politics, blamed the Philippine Military Academy for many of the problems.

In a recent column he wrote: "The coups we have seen since Marcos illustrate just how fragile the loyalty of the PMA-trained officer corps is to Philippine democracy.

"We are nursing in the PMA the virus of anti-democractic culture that is incompatible with the principle of civilian supremacy over the military."

The problem, however, goes beyond the military.

Since the overthrow of Marcos, many officers have gone on to run revenue-generating public agencies and government owned corporations while others such as charismatic coup leader Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan swapped his fatigues for a suit and entered politics.

According to Glenda Gloria in her study, "Out of the Barracks", many officers have become embedded in the patronage system, blurring the line between civil and military institutions.

To some extent politicians, such as Arroyo, have sought such loyalties for their own survival.

But even Arroyo could not prevent the military revolt in Manila last July by 321 junior officers and soldiers.

At the time they said it was not a coup but an action to have their grievances heard. In all it lasted some 20 hours. They returned to barracks after Arroyo gave assurances their charges would be investigated.

In the video tape, shown on local TV at the time, the rebel spokesman navy lieutenant Antonio Trillanes charged that then defence minister Angelo Reyes and military intelligence chief general Victor Corpus were guilty of providing arms to Muslim separatists in the south of the country.

He claimed the military was behind a series of terrorist blasts all aimed at winning US military aid and an increased presence of American forces.

Although the rebellion collapsed, it underlined just how little headway has been made in reforming the military, a key pillar of government.

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