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. Nuclear weapons would leave Taiwan isolated: experts
TAIPEI (AFP) Oct 18, 2004
Any attempt by Taiwan to acquire nuclear weapons would leave it isolated in its stand-off with China and spark a dangerous arms race, analysts said.

Such a move would risk losing the support of the United States, which is treaty-bound to help Taiwan defend itself against any invasion by China, which views the island as a renegade province.

"I really don't think Taiwan would benefit from operating nuclear bombs," said Homes Liao, a researcher of the Taiwan Research Institute private think-tank. "It would not help enhance Taiwan's military strategic profile in dealing with China."

Liao's comments followed denials last week by Taiwan's government that it was trying to develop nuclear weapons.

It also dismissed reports from Austria that the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had uncovered evidence that the former Kuomintang government carried out plutonium separation experiments in the 1980s.

But David Albright, president of the Washington think tank Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), had said that in US circles "there is presently concern that Taiwan may be doing nuclear weapons planning now or thinking about it, particularly after the comment in the Taiwanese parliament."

Taiwan was forced by Washington in the 1980s to scrap its plans to develop nuclear warheads. The plan surfaced after a senior researcher was smuggled off the island by the United States, according to Lee Wen-chung, parliamentarian from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Under the constraints set up by the United States and IAEA, Taipei would not be able to resume nuclear weapon research programme without being caught, analysts said.

Taiwan's leaders "are not thinking in this direction", said Liao.

Shuai Hua-min, a retired lieutenant general, warned that the dangers of acquiring nuclear weapons were great.

"Developing nuclear weapons will only force Taiwan into an arms race with a powerful nuclear country like China. There is no return if we walk down that road," he said.

Chung Chien, professor of National Tsing Hua University's nuclear science department, estimated that it would cost billions of dollars to reopen the nuclear programme.

"The United States strongly opposes Taiwan's any efforts to develop nuclear weapons," he added.

Washington is the island's long-standing arms supplier despite switching diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.

Fears of a possible move towards nuclear arms were heightened by Premier Yu Shyi-kun's reference last month to the "mutually assured destruction" which prevented open hostilities between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

"You (China) have the capability to destroy me and Taiwan should have the capability to counter. You strike me with 100 missiles and I should at least strike back with 50," Yu was reported as saying, although he later said he was quoted out of context.

Taiwan's defense ministry says China is targeting the island with some 600 ballistic missiles and the number will increase to 800 by 2006.

Alarmed by China's arms build-up, Taiwan's government is seeking parliament's approval for a controversial 18-billion-dollar special defense budget over a 15-year period from 2005, which called for the purchase of six PAC-3 anti-missile systems, eight conventional submarines, and a fleet of submarine-hunting aircraft.

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