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War tilting air demand towards Europe: Ryanair 's O'Leary Brussels, Belgium, March 19 (AFP) Mar 19, 2026 The Middle East war is tilting air passenger demand towards Europe at the expense of the Gulf region, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary told AFP on Thursday. Speaking in Brussels on the sidelines of a meeting of the Airlines for Europe (A4E) association, O'Leary saw a strong April outlook for Europe, with his carrier relatively well-hedged against fluctuations in fuel prices, which have soared as a result of the war. Asked to what degree the war had knocked Ryanair forecasts out of kilter, O'Leary said: "The strange thing at the moment is the Iran situation has certainly given a boost to travel patterns over the Easter school holidays. "So the first two weeks of April now are strong. I think the people who were originally planning to either go to the Middle East or overfly the Middle East for their Easter school holidays are switching now and coming back to Portugal, Spain, South France, Italy, Greece." O'Leary added he was not sure that would continue into the summer while looking at the wider implications of the conflict for Gulf region carriers and how the region's tourist industry might respond. "When the war is over, and we think it will last maybe another four, five, six weeks, I think when the Gulf carriers then reopen, their tourism industry will be devastated. "So you're going to see massive price dumping by the Gulf carriers, massive price incentives by the hotels and the tourism infrastructure in the Middle East. "And that will put real downward pressure on European travel. How many Europeans would want to go back to the Gulf in the short term? I don't know." Asked about Ryanair's renowned hedging strategy to protect it against oil price volatility O'Leary said he believes the carrier is well-placed to absorb rises. "We're 80 percent hedged to March 2027, that's just $67 a barrel," compared to the $112 that Brent crude was fetching Thursday after earlier touching $119. "But we still have to pay 20 percent now that could be priced at $180 a barrel. So it will become a challenge for us as we move into April and May. "(But) the market itself thinks this won't last very long and oil prices will come back down. So again, it is a short term challenge for that unhedged 20 percent -- but we can absorb that," said the Irishman, while conceding that if the situation ran through to year end that would pose a challenge. "I think in that situation it becomes a problem for every airline in Europe, and airlines will be passing on fuel surcharges, airfares will be rising," he said, indicating that most "European airlines are well hedged through to the end of September. "So for the first six months of the key summer this year, it's not going to have much of an impact." He also forecast that "when the Gulf carriers start re-flying and start dumping prices, then I think it's going to be real pressure on European airlines. "But at that stage, the Straits of Hormuz should have reopened and oil prices should be falling again." O'Leary reiterated his company no longer wished to expand its presence in France due to what it considers excessive taxation. "You could hardly put more burdens on the airline sector than the French already have. "The air traffic control services are ridiculously expensive ... frankly, we have no interest in growing in France at the moment. "And if we can move aircraft to places like Sweden where they've abolished aviation taxes, Slovakia abolished aviation taxes, regional Italy where five of the big regions have abolished aviation taxes, why would we want to fly in France where they're still increasing? He concluded that "eventually there'll be a new government in France and eventually France will become more competitive. But I wouldn't hold my breath. Much as I love the people -- and your rugby team when they're beating England." tq/uh/cw/yad |
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