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How can Hormuz shipping blockage be solved?
London, March 19 (AFP) Mar 19, 2026
Iranian forces' closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through global trade, with little sign of a break in the deadlock.

Here are five ways that experts say commodities could begin moving again through the strait, through which 20 percent of global oil supplies normally pass.


- US-led military action -


The most-talked-about option is for the US and willing allies to secure the 167-kilometre (104-mile) long passage militarily, but it is a mission fraught with difficulties.

Some 23 commercial vessels have reported incidents or attacks to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations -- a naval monitor -- and seafarers fear they could be hit by drones, missiles or sea mines if they try to leave.

There are currently two US carrier strike groups -- naval formations built around an aircraft carrier -- in the region, the "bare minimum number of warships" required for an escort mission, Nick Childs, senior fellow at the IISS, told a seminar convened by the London-based defence think-tank.

The leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan on Thursday said they were ready "to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait."

But it remains a daunting mission.

"This is not just a maritime issue, and escort ships will not solve the problem alone... it would need a whole wrap around it, of air capability, maritime capability, crewed, uncrewed, long-range strike, short-strike, et cetera," a UK defence official said in a briefing on Wednesday.

"So it's a significant military challenge... This must be a multinational solution," the official added. "We're not anywhere near that at the moment."


- Diplomatic off-ramp -


A purely diplomatic solution remains on the table and is the preferred solution touted by many global leaders.

However, recent tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure have further ramped up hostilities, with neither side indicating any appetite for talks.

Several governments are in bilateral talks with Tehran over an "emerging IRGC registration and vetting system", said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of maritime intelligence journal Lloyd's List -- a reference to Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

The proposed system would create an Iranian-approved "safe corridor" for ships to use, Meade told an online briefing on Thursday.

"We know that several governments -- including China, but (also) India, Pakistan, Iraq, Malaysia -- they're all in direct talks with Tehran, coordinating vessel transits," he said.

At least nine ships have already used this corridor, which routes ships close to Iran's Larak Island for visual checks by Iranian authorities, he added.

While this offers some movement, Meade warned that "negotiated safe passage... is unlikely to dramatically increase the trickle of tonnage".


- Take the chance -


Another option is for shipowners to risk crossing the strait without dealing with Iran.

"Greek owners and operators have, typically, a higher risk appetite" and continue to move tankers through the route, Bridget Dyken, an analyst at analysis group Lloyd's List Intelligence, told the Lloyd's briefing.

Her colleague Cichen Shen added there was evidence of a potential Chinese exit plan where tankers pay a "7.5 percent of hull value" insurance rate for 72 hours of coverage to transit the strait.


- Alternative routes -


Shipping companies are exploring other ways to move their cargo, with Gulf maritime traffic patterns indicating "early signs of global rebalancing," said marine intelligence group Windward in a report.

In recent days, transit volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb strait off east Africa surged 280 percent, and 70 percent through the Suez Canal, it said, indicating that "shipping is adapting through alternative corridors."

Passages around the Cape of Good hope off South Africa rose 13 percent.


- Wait it out -


Dyken said that some operators may refuse to move, even under escort, without a "guarantee from Iran or the IRGC" that attacks will cease.

But the thousands of seafarers on board already face dwindling supplies of fuel and water, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned Tuesday.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf warned on Tuesday that "the Strait of Hormuz won't return to its pre-war status".


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