A few weeks after the US-Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28 sparked the conflict and plunged world energy markets into turmoil, the UN's World Food Programme warned that soaring oil prices were devastating global food security.

If oil prices were to remain around $100 per barrel until the end of June, an estimated 45 million more people worldwide would face acute hunger, the WFP warned in March.

They would come in addition to the nearly 320 million people considered acutely food insecure at the start of the year, it said.

Weeks of complicated talks marked by sharp rhetoric and flare-ups of violence have not managed to reach a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical to oil supplies.

And now, nearly three months into the conflict, "the negative scenario is unfortunately materialising", Jean-Martin Bauer, the director of WFP's food and nutrition analysis service, told AFP.

"The closure of Hormuz is translating into increased hunger," he said, pointing to soaring costs for staples like rice and wheat.

"Unfortunately, the pessimistic projections that were made earlier this year are coming to pass, and we need to act."

- Millions could lose assistance -

According to the WFP's analysis, "the crisis is generating significant spillovers, particularly through fuel, food price and income shocks and trade disruptions."

"As these factors interact with pre-existing vulnerabilities they quickly translate into visible impacts on food security and livelihoods."

The analysis looked at the situations in several countries with different levels of exposure to the crisis, including Somalia, where it projected that 2.5 million more people would be unable to afford basic foodstuffs by the end of the year.

And nearly 60 percent of households in the unstable Horn of Africa nation would be unable to afford essential needs, up from 47 percent in 2025, the agency said.

"What's shaping up is the return of a global cost of living crisis of the likes that we experienced in 2022," after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Bauer warned.

But this time, the humanitarian system that jumped into action back then has been hard-hit by dramatic cuts to global aid funding, especially since US President Donald Trump's return to the White House.

In 2022, "humanitarian programmes were better funded. Humanitarians were in places where they are no longer", Bauer said.

On top of that, logistical challenges and price inflation linked to the Middle East war have put a strain on aid efforts worldwide.

"The humanitarian system faces a double squeeze: rising needs and rising delivery costs, implying coverage gaps," the WFP analysis warned.

The agency estimated that it would now serve 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 than originally planned.

It cautioned that if the conflict lasted six months, more than nine million people could lose assistance.

For instance, the WFP risks basically running "out of food" to distribute in Somalia in a few months, Bauer said.

"Clouds are accumulating when you look at the food security horizon."