At present, nearly every nation there is embroiled in an internal conflict that is shaking not simply the government's power base but often the very foundation of the state itself. Many things beyond the United States' control have happened to bring the Middle East to this point.

But unless the United States changes its policies toward the region in a fundamental way, it will find itself in a never-ending quagmire, sapping its own energy and resources and seriously threatening its own national security while ushering in even greater regional upheaval of historic proportions.

I have just returned from an extensive trip to the Middle East, my 7th in 12 months, and find myself less hopeful than at any time in recent memory. Not surprisingly, most of the region's leaders attribute the current high levels of uncertainty and fear largely to the Iraq war and the occupation, as well as to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For them the Iraq war and the Sunni-Shiite conflict that followed are catastrophic.

They view America's push for democracy in the region as self-serving and a dismal failure because it has precipitated more turmoil than stability. They accuse Washington of applying a double standard especially when dealing with Israel; their belief in this has caused American credibility in the region to plunge to an all-time low while making every U.S. initiative suspect.

In Iraq the security situation is worsening, with the number of sectarian, execution-style killings increased dramatically in recent weeks from 100 to 200 daily. Previous efforts to reduce the carnage by flooding troubled neighborhood with thousands of American and Iraqi troops and conducting house-by-house searches had little effect. The new plan to seal off Baghdad by ringing it with trenches and setting up dozens of checkpoints will not fare any better. Hundreds of hidden depots of weapon and explosives inside Baghdad will supply insurgents for years.

The situation is further aggravated by the Shiites' drive to divide the country into autonomous regions. If successful, this will deprive the Sunnis of their rightful share of the country's oil because western and north-central Iraq, where the majority of them reside, has little if any oil. To be sure, Iraq is already in a civil war. Rather than offering any solution, the administration's policy of "staying the course" will only hasten Iraq's inevitable violent disintegration.

Turning to Iran, the situation there is not encouraging. Iran may be living in a fantasy world, but the Iranian clergy absolutely believe in their divine power and destiny to dominate the entire region. Tehran continues to stall to gain for time in which to enrich uranium while exploiting any sign of weakness by the West.

So far, the Iranians have successfully played Russia and China against the United States, and the EU to prevent the imposition of economic sanctions, and have defied an August 31 deadline set by the UN to suspend enrichment of uranium. For this behavior, it would seem that Iran was actually rewarded when Washington shifted its stand and offered to stop seeking sanctions if Tehran suspended enrichment--suspension for suspension.

Meanwhile, Iran has been the main backer of the same Hezbollah that brought war and ruin to Lebanon. The Iranian government has also emboldened Hamas to challenge Israel, which it has done, precipitating nothing but destruction to the Palestinians.

Iran continues to threaten Israel's very existence which Jerusalem takes extremely seriously. And in every Arab capital, Iran's behavior has caused anxiety and deep concern regarding its ambitions to develop nuclear weapons and the U.S. failure to do anything about it. It is about time Iran is offered a stark choice between compliance to international norms of conduct or face unspecified crippling measures.

(Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiations and Middle Eastern studies. alon@alonben-meir.com Web: www.alonben-meir.com.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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