. Military Space News .

Commentary: Chaos and anarchy?
by Arnaud De Borchgrave
Washington (UPI) Mar 16, 2012

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes Indonesia warns of 'mistrust' over US Marine plan
Sydney (AFP) March 16, 2012 - Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa on Friday said the stationing of US Marines in Australia needed to be better explained to all countries in Asia to avoid "mistrust".

In an interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, Natalegawa also called on Australia to "wage aggressive peace" in the region and accept that the rise of China was natural and not threatening.

The United States announced in November a plan to station some 2,500 Marines in remote Darwin by 2016-17, which was seen by some as an acknowledgement of Washington's concern about China's growing assertiveness.

Natalegawa said he understood the deployment of Marines was not directed at Indonesia "but unless (understanding) is properly disseminated, it could create mistrust among others".

"There are so many potential triggers" for conflict, he added, after talks with his Australian counterpart Bob Carr.

"If we make the anarchical assumption, everyone will behave according to the worst-case scenario."

Natalegawa argued for policies to accommodate a rising China, saying a consequence of the rising prosperity of Asia was military modernisation.

"That's fine and normal as long as we do not attach unnecessary aggressive intent to it," he said.

"Countries rising and falling is natural. Once you accept that, it will not be seen as threatening."

The US currently has only a limited deployment in longstanding ally Australia, including the Pine Gap Joint Defence Facility spy station near Alice Springs.


What happens when foreign think tank heavyweights get together at the prestigious Council on Foreign Relations to talk about the United States and the state of the world?

"Is the United States in decline?" asked Igor Yurgens, chairman of the Russian Institute of Contemporary Development. His answer: "America was good to go until Libya, which gave (Russian Prime Minister Vladimir) Putin a pretext to go back to a new form of Cold War. There are no reasons for confrontation.

"The U.S. Defense Department does not give us any reason for confrontation. Russia is no danger for the U.S. in Europe. For rational and pragmatic reasons, you are bringing back your troops from Europe two decades after the end of the Cold War. Putin will be at Camp David with (U.S. President Barack) Obama in May for another try with the reset button.

"The post-Lisbon rapprochement due to the Obama administration's decision to scrap the initial plan to deploy missile defenses (against Iran) in the Czech Republic and Poland, came unglued again with NATO's plans to deploy more sophisticated systems in Poland and Romania. Russia says any such system should be a joint venture between NATO and Russia. Another chance for reset is coming."

Thierry de Montbrial, president of the French Institute of International Relations, said: "Franco-American relations go up and down like a roller coaster. Everything had reached bottom again when (French President Nicolas) Sarkozy was elected president in 2007 and back up it went.

"The world itself is fundamentally disorganized and we all seem to be moving toward chaos and anarchy. New blocs are bound to emerge from our crisis in confidence about who we are.

"The identity crisis is illustrated by a book on the coming Islamic age in bookstores. It's an ID problem.

"We all see China, sooner or later, becoming the next superpower, illustrated by the front-page picture of Obama bowing to China's Hu Jintao last January. We see fragmentation leading to anarchy.

"We believe the U.S. has made fundamental mistakes -- e.g., the financial management crisis of 2007, a fundamental flaw that was not taken seriously enough.

"There was also the big failure of Afghanistan. So was Iraq. We now live in fear of Israel bombing Iran's nuclear installations because we know the U.S. will be automatically involved, which makes the next phase unpredictable, except we know it will be a major setback for all of us."

Next, Yasushi Kudo, represented Genron NPO, a non-profit dedicated to creating forums to discuss Japan's future, also a former publisher of the leading business weekly magazine Shukan Toyo Keizai and editor of the monthly magazine Financial Business and Debate, was more upbeat.

"The U.S. dispatched 20,000 troops to assist us in the tsunami disaster," he began. "And we continue to view the U.S. as a strong ally. On the debate about the relocation of U.S. bases, we should think this through together. Eighty-four percent of the Japanese people view the U.S. favorably.

"Because there is a Chinese threat, some see the U.S. already passing from the scene and as a result of this thinking Japan is being thrust into the forefront. It is critically important that we communicate frankly with each other. What does the U.S. want Japan to do?

"There is, as we can all see, a rise in nationalism in China. Eight years ago I initiated a muscular dialogue with China on our geopolitical futures. I concluded the most adroit thing for us is to counterbalance fear of China about Russia and vice versa with clever diplomacy, building up trust.

"Chinese groups and associations invite us all the time. From here in (the District of Columbia) I leave for Shanghai and another conference. Our expectations are lower so everything looks good."

Montbrial injected: "Our fear is about a China that is too strong and too weak at the same time. China recognizes that it has never dealt with the whole world before. Collective security is the management of different balances of power.

"Russia has a big problem with China. There are 8 million Russians in Siberia versus 1.3 billion Chinese on the other side. It would be wrong to adopt a Cold War attitude but it is quite legitimate for the Chinese to have armed forces commensurate with their size."

Next, Russia's Yurgens said: "I hear complaints about TV propaganda in Russia. There are four TV channels and one radio network that are state-controlled. So we now have an Internet party and a TV party, two different worlds. Most Russians get their news and commentary on the Internet and 52 percent of Russians think relations with U.S. are good. Twenty percent believe they are predominantly bad.

"While almost all Russians are now on the Internet, TV still plays a leading role in perceptions. After the collapse of the U.S.S.R., we focused on domestic problems. We're now coming back internationally, notably in Latin America.

"We are much criticized for our decision to stay with President Assad in Syria. Libya is a good example of what could happen in Syria. Of course, we also have a $20 billion exposure in Syria for arms sales. Syria also has the only port available for Russian navy ships in the Mediterranean.

"In Libya, the U.S. and NATO rode roughshod over Russian interests, which we could see happening again in Syria. And what are you leaving behind in Libya?"

France's Montbrial continued: "April 22 and a possible runoff May 6 will decide whether Nicolas Sarkozy (57), known as pro-American, is re-elected president or replaced by a socialist, Francois Hollande (57).

"With President Hollande, I cannot see military interventions in a united front with President Obama and (British) Prime Minister (David) Cameron.

"Do we really want civil war in Syria? What would be our objective? Are we prepared to increase chaos everywhere? In Syria, we should be working with Russia and China to put an end to what could become a civil war.

"For the next 20 years I see the U.S. keeping its place as the world's No. 1 economic and military power but it's important you rely less on brute military power.

"And understand that the Iranians are smarter than all of us. They're a genius at the diplomatic game. Very cruel. But I'm absolutely convinced they only want to reach the threshold of nuclear power, like the Japanese. The Iranian regime is very shaky. The leaders know that if they cross the barrier into military nuclear power, others in the region would follow. Not in their interest.

"During 40 years, the U.S. was consistent in its opposition to the Soviet Union, which was eventually defeated. It would behoove the U.S. to be smart and consistent over a long period of time, as it was during the Cold War."

Japan's Kudo (through an interpreter) conceded: "I've undergone a cultural transformation. Until 10 years ago, I disliked China and thought we couldn't agree on anything. Now I've been there 20 times and we are on the same playing field and are having a good dialogue. We got really connected last year and now we're on the same page."

Related Links
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com

Get Our Free Newsletters Via Email
Buy Advertising Editorial Enquiries

China's heir apparent calls for Communist Party unity
Beijing (AFP) March 16, 2012 - China's likely next leader has called for greater unity in the ruling Communist Party in a speech published Friday -- a day after the biggest political drama to hit the country in years.

The speech, in which Vice-President Xi Jinping also said the party's authority had been weakened by a "lack of principles" among some members, was made before senior leader Bo Xilai was sacked as Chongqing party secretary.

But analysts said the decision to publish it on Friday in the party magazine Qiushi, or Seeking Truth, was a sign that China's leaders were keen to prevent potentially damaging infighting in the party.

Xi is expected to take over from Hu Jintao at the helm of the Communist Party later this year before becoming China's president in 2013 in a generational handover of power.

"To maintain the party's ideological purity is to guarantee the unity of the party," said Xi, accusing some members of "a lack or principles and corrupt behaviour which is not conducive to the purity of the party".

"Today some people join the party not because they believe in Marxism and want to devote themselves to Socialism with Chinese characteristics... but because becoming a member brings them personal benefits," he added.

"If the thoughts of members and cadres of the party are not pure, their ideas cannot be firm, and their political positions can easily change."

Xi did not mention Bo by name in his speech, delivered to cadets at the Central Party School -- a training ground for future leaders -- on March 1.

But David Goodman, an expert on Chinese politics, said it sent a message that party leaders did not want the kind of open politics that the charismatic and populist Bo was seen as practising.

"What happened under Mao (Zedong) was that individual whim rather party organisation came to rule," said Goodman, professor of Chinese politics at the University of Sydney.

"The Cultural Revolution smacks to many people of a lawlessness and the whims of a single ruler. How does that relate to Bo? He laid himself open to the criticism by going for an open, charismatic (style of) politics."

China announced on Thursday that Bo, a rising star once tipped to reach the very top in the ruling party, had been removed from his post in the southwestern metropolis of Chongqing.

He remains a member of the party's powerful Politburo, but analysts say his political hopes are finished after a scandal involving a key aide who was said to have tried to defect to the United States.


. Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

Chinese leader's sacking exposes party rifts: analysts
Beijing (AFP) March 16, 2012
The sacking of rising star Bo Xilai has bolstered President Hu Jintao's reformist faction and exposed deep divides in the Communist Party ahead of a 10-yearly leadership transition, analysts say. Bo, famed for his populist "red revival" campaign, was removed as party chief of the southwestern metropolis of Chongqing on Thursday, ending his hopes of joining China's most powerful decision-maki ... read more

Israel lauds its anti-rocket system

US may disclose missile defence data to Russia

Rafael eyes Iron Dome exports after Gaza

Israel sees Gaza rocket fire as part of Iran threat

Lockheed Martin Upgrades Tactical Tomahawk Weapons Control System for Naval Air Systems Command

Raytheon Wins $77.9 Million US Army Missile Subsystem Support Contract

Raytheon Awarded US Army Contract to Counter Rockets

Pakistan test fires short-range ballistic missile

Drones may be controlled by gestures

US drone strike kills 5 militants in Pakistan: officials

UUAV conducts 7-hour mission

FAA Starts UAS Test Site Selection Process

Northrop Grumman Wins Contract for USAF Command and Control Modernization Program

TacSat-4 Enables Polar Region SatCom Experiment

'See Me' satellites may help ground forces

Boeing and Artel to Provide Commercial Satellite Services to US Government

Arjun tanks to get automatic video tracker

Sweden agrees to ratify cluster bomb ban treaty

New Zealand inducts first NH90 helicopters

Lockheed Martin Receives Sniper Post Production Contract

India hikes defence spending by 17 percent

Eurocopter India on roll

Canada mulls nixing F-35 purchase

US urged to cancel Russia arms deal over Syria

Chinese leader's sacking exposes party rifts: analysts

Commentary: Chaos and anarchy?

Bo Xilai: China's fallen political star

Pacific big enough for all of us, says China

HyperSolar Discloses Development Plan for Breakthrough Renewable Hydrogen and Natural Gas Technology

Molecular graphene heralds new era of 'designer electrons'

Touch of gold improves nanoparticle fuel-cell reactions

The shape of things to come: NIST probes the promise of nanomanufacturing using DNA origami

Memory Foam Mattress Review

Newsletters :: SpaceDaily Express :: SpaceWar Express :: TerraDaily Express :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News


The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2012 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement