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TERROR WARS
Fleeing offensives, where are the IS jihadists going?
By Layal About Rahal
Beirut (AFP) Oct 3, 2017


US, Philippine troops launch new counter-terror drills
Manila (AFP) Oct 2, 2017 - US and Philippine troops launched new joint counter-terrorism exercises on Monday, days after President Rodrigo Duterte, a fierce critic of Washington, reversed course in favour of pursuing one of Asia's oldest military alliances.

Duterte vowed last week to be "friendly" with the United States, in contrast to comments he made a year ago calling joint military exercises a "humiliation" and threatening to sever defence ties forged after World War II.

The week-long joint operation -- another turnaround from Duterte's initial stand -- involves live-fire training, rescues in combat situations, and mass-casualty situations aboard ships, according to the American side.

The US embassy said the drills "will increase overall US and Philippine readiness, improve bilateral responsiveness to crises in the region, and further reinforce our illustrious decades-long alliance," in a statement on Monday.

"(The operation) perpetuates a long and lasting partnership founded firmly on common heritage between freedom-loving countries," said Philippine Marines spokeswoman Captain Maria Rowena Dalmacio.

About 900 US troops are taking part in the training, to be held in various locations in the northern Philippine region of Luzon, including the former US military base of Clark. The Filipino side did not disclose its numbers.

Duterte, 72, had sought to loosen his nation's alliance with the United States since assuming the presidency last year as he looked to forge stronger relations with China and Russia.

During a visit to China last October he announced his "separation from the United States" and later explained he was angry at then US president Barack Obama for criticising his centrepiece war on drugs which has since seen thousands killed.

However Duterte said last week these comments were "water under the bridge" and thanked the US for helping the Philippines fight Islamic militants who occupied parts of the southern city of Marawi on May 23.

The US provided intelligence, weapons and urban warfare training to Philippine forces trying to retake the city in fighting which has left more than 900 people dead.

The continuing Marawi crisis has prompted Duterte to refocus the Philippine-US military alliance towards counter-terrorism.

Last week, US and Philippine forces staged an exercise simulating the seizure of an American plane by IS and a hostage rescue.

The Islamic State group is under attack across the remaining parts of its self-proclaimed caliphate, but what happens to its thousands of fighters as their group loses grip on territory?

Facing multiple offensives, the jihadist group has lost the Libyan city of Sirte, Iraq's Mosul and Ramadi, and is now on the verge of being ousted from its former Syrian stronghold Raqa.

At its peak IS counted tens of thousands of fighters among its ranks, with US officials estimating as many as 40,000 foreign fighters travelled to join the jihadists over the years.

How many have been killed, arrested?

Forces attacking IS have regularly reported the deaths and arrests of large numbers of jihadists, but their figures are often vague and cannot be independently verified.

"We can't give an exact number of those arrested but we can say that there are a good number of them being detained by our forces," said Mustafa Bali, spokesman for the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces currently battling IS in Syria.

In Iraq's Mosul, journalists saw the bodies of jihadists killed in fighting on the streets, but they numbered no more than a few dozen at any time, far less than the hundreds authorities often said had died in combat.

Other IS fighters may have been arrested and then executed.

In July, the Human Rights Watch group accused a unit of Iraq's army of carrying out summary executions of suspected jihadist prisoners.

Hiding among civilians?

A persistent fear for forces attacking IS is that its fighters will try to blend into the civilian population, either fleeing along with the displaced or staying behind in homes.

"The problem of operatives hiding among civilians who flee is certainly a major issue," said Aymenn al-Tamimi, a research fellow at the Middle East Forum.

"Operatives might stay behind and melt into the wider civilian population to function as sleeper cells or recruit others to become part of sleeper cells as well," he told AFP.

In Syria, Bali said, some IS fighters "have been discovered in camps for the displaced via our databases".

Others have been turned in by civilians who recognised and reported them.

But some fighters slip through nonetheless, especially as "some civilians are afraid to report them, fearing revenge will be taken against them," said Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor.

Iraqi forces, like their counterparts in Syria, use a database to pick out suspected IS fighters from among civilians.

But a local Iraqi official said "a large number of Daesh elements are hiding among the population in Mosul, particularly in the Old City," using the Arabic acronym for IS.

Their presence is evidenced by "the assassinations and bombings that continue daily", said Hisham al-Hashimi, a researcher who specialises in jihadist movements.

What about foreign fighters?

The many non-Arab foreign fighters among IS's ranks may not be able to blend so easily into the fleeing civilian populations, with their features and language betraying them.

"There's a lot of (IS) foreign fighters there that don't want to give up and intend to fight very hard," the top coalition commander assisting and advising the SDF told AFP.

Foreign fighters are often those carrying out suicide attacks, added Hashimi, and by the end of any given battle "the number of them left behind is very small".

Their chances of returning home are slim, with intelligence services closely monitoring for returnees, and the Turkish border now tightly surveilled.

Charlie Winter, a senior research fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence, said IS's own propaganda suggested a loosening of its once-tight rules against leaving its territory for that of the "unbelievers".

"The group has very indirectly -- but also in my opinion unambiguously -- essentially said that it is no longer impermissible to flee the IS territories," he told AFP.

Refuge in remaining IS territory?

With its territory across Syria and Iraq rapidly shrinking, IS is now concentrating its resources in the Euphrates River valley that lies along the Syria-Iraq border, experts say.

"For a long time now the centre of gravity for the Islamic State has been shifting... towards places like Mayadeen and Albu Kamal," in the east of Syria's Deir Ezzor province, said Winter.

"IS has very systematically been bulking up its infrastructure and its population in these places," he added.

He said IS had likely ensured that large numbers of fighters moved to these areas well before they were surrounded in places like Raqa and Mosul.

That means now that the fight for places like Mayadeen and Albu Kamal could be "surprisingly ferocious," he said.

burs-lar/sah/dv

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