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WAR REPORT
Gadhafi's death opens Libya to infighting
by Staff Writers
Tripoli, Libya (UPI) Oct 21, 2011

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The pursuit of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi kept Libyan rebels together under the NATO-backed National Transitional Council flag but his death opens the way for a much-delayed power struggle within the disparate coalition now ruling Libya.

The more secularist individuals and groups in the NTC are seen to be under pressure from Islamists, a trend predicted for long but not dealt with in any great detail by NATO strategists as they concentrated on securing military results to help catapult the rebels to power.

With Gadhafi off the scene, political differences within the NTC are becoming more pronounced but European responses to the inevitable complexities are few and far between.

The most notable divisions are between the secularists, who fronted the NTC during the months of its formation and consolidation after NATO began its bombardments in February, and entrenched Islamists who kept a low profile throughout that campaign.

The uncertainty now is about who will emerge on top.

Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, said Libya could face an unstable outlook for its immediate future if NTC Chairman Mustafa Abdul Jalil and Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril quit, as they said they would once Gadhafi was gone.

"Both Abdul Jalil and NTC Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril have announced their desire to resign once Gadhafi was gone," Hokayem said. "The two did a decent job at steering Libya through difficult time but they were criticized by other Libyan factions for their previous association with Gadhafi and their alleged power ambitions.

"Jibril in particular has become the bete noire of several Islamist figures who resent his secularism and methods," Hokayem added, in a strategic comment posted on his blog and sent by e-mail to United Press International.

"Gadhafi's death will hopefully help Libya to turn the page and pursue in earnest a transition that seemed to have gone off tracks in recent weeks. What matters most now is the tone of the new Libyan authorities.

"Cheering Gadhafi's death is one thing but what is more important is to embrace the language and spirit of reconciliation," Hokayem said.

So far, he said, Jalil has spoken of reconciliation, not vengeance. But the defeat of Gadhafi forces in Sirte and Bani Walid took longer and was bloodier than expected, exacerbating internal divides.

"Many Gadhafi supporters somehow believed their leader could still come back. Now, they will have to accept that their future and well-being require that they accept the new realities and join the political game. The question is whether the NTC and its successors will do their utmost to allow them to do so."

Hokayem said much now depended on whether the two leaders choose to stay or leave their positions.

"The departure of these two leaders from power could destabilize Libya if there is no consensual government in place to take over. So far, various Libyan factions have refused to disarm and let the NTC be fully in charge of the country's internal order. This reflects deep mistrust between the different regions.

"One often hears of rivalries between Tripoli and Benghazi, between Zintan fighters and Misurata militia. Reconciliation and disarmament must go hand in hand, and any new government must have this as a priority ahead of elections," Hokayem said.

Amnesty International asked that Gadhafi's death be investigated to determine if a war crime was committed.

Video footage that emerged Thursday appears to show that Gadhafi was captured alive by anti-Gadhafi troops in Sirte.

"If Colonel al-Gadhafi was killed after his capture, it would constitute a war crime and those responsible should be brought to justice," Amnesty International Senior Director Claudio Cordone said.

"Investigating whether or not his death was a war crime might be unpopular. However, the NTC must apply the same standards to all, affording justice even to those who categorically denied it to others.

"Bringing al-Gadhafi to trial would have finally given his numerous victims answers as to why they were targeted and an opportunity for justice and reparations."

Jibril said Gadhafi had been fatally wounded in the head amid cross-fire. But other NTC officials told the media that the former leader bled to death en route to the hospital, or that he was killed by fighters after capture.

Amnesty International said Gadhafi's death was a reminder of the extrajudicial killings that the fallen regime was notorious for and called on the NTC to move away from such practices and enforce the rule of law.

Financial services firm J. P. Morgan, in a comment for investors, said an early restoration of security and disarmament of thousands of militia were urgent challenges for Libya. But its analysts said an early disarmament of all the militia groups threatening security in Libya was unlikely in the first year of the new government.

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NATO plans to end Libya mission October 31
Brussels (AFP) Oct 21, 2011 - NATO plans to end its seven-month air and sea mission in Libya on October 31 but will issue a formal decision next week after consulting the United Nations and Libya's interim authorities, NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Friday.

"We agreed that our operations are very close to completion and we have taken a preliminary decision to end Operation Unified Protector on October 31," Rasmussen said after long talks in Brussels with ambassadors of the 28-member alliance on when and how to wind up the campaign.

"In the meantime, I will consult closely with the United Nations and the National Transitional Council," the interim authority in Libya, he added.

"I'm very proud of what we have achieved, together with our partners, including many from the region," he said.

NATO would continue to "monitor the situation and retain the capacity to respond to threats to civilians, if needed," he added a day after the death of Moamer Kadhafi and the fall of his last strongholds.

Asked to confirm that a NATO strike against Kadhafi's convoy near Sirte on Thursday was unintentional, Rasmussen said the former Libyan leader had never been a target.

He also said in response to a question that NATO had no knowledge on the whereabouts of Kadhafi's son Saif al-Islam.

Rasmussen urged the transitional authorities "to live up to respect of human rights, including full transparency."

Earlier, the head of the allied command, US Admiral James Stavridis had said on Facebook: "I will be recommending conclusion of this mission to the North Atlantic Council of NATO in a few hours."

"An extraordinary 24 hours in Libya," he added. "A good day for NATO. A great day for the people of Libya."

The alliance by its own count has conducted 26,156 flights, including 9,634 strike sorties, since taking over the mission from Paris and London on March 31 under a UN mandate to protect civilians at threat from Kadhafi's regime.

NATO earlier Friday said it was unaware that Kadhafi was travelling in a convoy struck by alliance aircraft near Sirte the previous day.

"At the time of the strike, NATO did not know that Kadhafi was in the convoy," NATO said in a lengthy statement. "We later learned from open sources and Allied intelligence that Kadhafi was in the convoy."

NATO aircraft struck 11 pro-Kadhafi vehicles at around 1030 GMT on Thursday that were part of a larger group of approximately 75 vehicles manoeuvring in the vicinity of Sirte.

Only one vehicle was destroyed, but that disrupted the convoy "and resulted in many vehicles dispersing and changing direction".

NATO then engaged a group of approximately 20 vehicles, destroying or damaging around 10 of the vehicles.

"The strike likely contributed to his capture," said NATO, referring to Kadhafi.



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WAR REPORT
Mission accomplished for NATO in Libya, but what next?
Brussels (AFP) Oct 21, 2011
NATO wind downs its mission in Libya on Friday after a seven-month campaign that saw the United States hand the helm to Europe for the first time in the history of the alliance. Though Washington lashed the Europeans for over-reliance on US military might to stay the course of the campaign, analysts believe the Libya example will underpin a continuing NATO role on the European theatre. T ... read more


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