With CIA confirmation of the authenticity of a new tape released by bin Laden and aired on Arabic language network Al-Jazeera on Thursday, there is new concern that the war on terror is not going to take just a little, but a lot more effort to fight.

"The most obvious meaning of the tape is that bin Laden is still alive," said CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen, speaking at The Brookings Institution on Thursday. Bergen added that the tape is probably a way of rallying renewed support by sending the message that al-Qaida is still out there and is still strong.

Concerns raised are a result of increasing violence and "copycatting of insurgent methods used in Iraq to drive out the United States and scare NATO," said Phillip Gordon, Director of Brookings Center on the United States and Europe.

Gerard Baker, U.S. Editor and columnist for The Times of London, discussed his perspectives of the situation from a December trip to Afghanistan with NATO at Brookings on Thursday. His concern rallied over the various conditions that NATO countries attach to their forces, reflecting "political uncertainties" from the perspectives of governments of the European countries present in Afghanistan.

"I don't see strong political support in Europe for what is going on there," said Baker. "If the fight intensifies, I have real concerns whether the public support in Europe will really continue." NATO's involvement in Afghanistan is currently key to the U.S. cause there.

Afghanistan has already experienced a high level of violence in the first few weeks of 2006 alone -- up to 10 major attacks, and since June, 21 suicide bombing operations. "This rise of violence is extremely disturbing," said Bergen, "I would say that this is not good news for the war on terror that bin Laden remains out there."

Bergen's discussion revolved around the change he has witnessed in Kabul, saying that he was surprised at the severity of the "lock-down" there on a trip to Afghanistan in December. Comparing it to his first visit 10 years ago, Bergen also pointed to the fact that the rise in violence is especially disturbing as Afghanistan previously did not engage in forms of radical protest as have been seen in Iraq in recent months.

"We are losing the war," said Steven Simon, senior analyst at the RAND Corporation and author of the recent book "The Next Attack: The Failure of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting it Right."

Simon sees the Jihadi movement taking place in Afghanistan as a move toward holding territory, similar to that in Saudi Arabia. He said that the violence seems to be a move toward causing the adversary to use up their resources and become "inclined to give in."

While Simon sees the violence as implication of a losing battle for the United States, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Director of the Middle East Initiative at the American Enterprise Institute, sees the battle as being one that can be won. "Having NATO's commitment will guarantee that the United States will stay there," he said, emphasizing the need for the United States to follow through no matter what.

"I was surprised at the somberness of briefings," said Baker, speaking of those given in Afghanistan. "There are generally dark assessments about the state of affairs at the moment," he said, adding that even the U.S. mbassador to Afghanistan was not overly optimistic and warned that success is not guaranteed.

Walter Slocombe, former undersecretary of defense for policy at the U.S. Department of Defense from 1994-2001, said that "there is a chance of success but not with just a little more effort ... this is not going to get fixed quickly."

Poll support in Europe has been deeply affected by the war on terrorism in Afghanistan. Baker spoke of the dissatisfaction levels with the United States and also the rampant deep cynicism as to whether the project in Afghanistan can go anywhere. "How are a few troops going to create a successful, thriving, remotely democratic system in Afghanistan? It is a serious challenge."

On the recently released tape, dated to sometime in December, bin Laden warned of plans for new terror attacks in the United States being underway. He also offered an apparent opportunity to negotiate with the United States, saying "We do not mind establishing a long-term truce between us and you."

Bin Laden's offer of a truce in not evidence that he is losing the war, said Bergen. "In Islamist jurisprudence you warn enemies before you attack them," said Bergen. "It is typical behavior." However, he also does not believe that the United States is losing the war to the extent that al-Qaida is capable of attacking the United States in a repeated Sept. 11, 2001, scenario.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan responded to this portion of the tape in a press conference on Thursday, "We do not negotiate with terrorists; we put them out of business," indicating that the United States has no plans to abandon the war in Afghanistan just yet.

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