War and mystery pneumonia to cost Thai tourism 700 million dollars

BANGKOK (AFP) Mar 31, 2003
Thailand is expected to lose 30 billion bahtmillion dollars) in tourism revenue in 2003 due to the war in Iraq and the spread of a deadly virus, an economic thinktank said here Monday.

"The Thai tourism growth rate is expected to increase by two percent for the year, with 11 million arrivals bringing in 345 billion baht of income," the Thai Farmers Research Centre (TFRC) said in a statement.

Without the US-led war and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the kingdom would have been on track to lure 11.7 million arrivals generating 375 billion baht in revenue, the thinktank added.

"The war and the deadly pneumonia outbreak will make Thailand lose 30 billion baht of its income," it said.

While tourist arrival growth for January and February was up compared with the same period last year, the rate fell in March due to the war and SARS, it said.

Arrivals for the first quarter this year grew an estimated three percent, compared with 7.9 percent for 2002, but arrivals were expected to fall seven percent in the second quarter.

"Tourists will postpone their trips and wait until the situation is better. We expect 2.25 million arrivals for the second quarter, or a seven percent decrease compared to the second quarter last year," the TFRC said.

It said the tourism growth would therefore fall two percent in the first half of the year but predicted a recovery in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile national carrier Thai Airways said Monday it was temporarily suspending some flights to Hong Kong and other cities affected by SARS.

Flights to Hong Kong were being reduced from seven to four a day, an airline spokeswoman said. Flight suspensions were in the pipeline for other cities but details were not yet available.

According to weekend reports, hotel occupancy rates have plunged 10 to 15 percent in Thailand's first quarter, including as much as 40 percent in some Bangkok hotels, compared with the same period last year.

Quarterly figures for the tourism industry as a whole have yet to be officially released.

The sober outlook for the industry is in sharp contrast to last year's record figures, which showed tourist arrivals jumping 7.33 percent to 10.8 million, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

The increase occurred despite a regional terror alert after the deadly Bali bombings, in the wake of which Thailand launched a public relations blitz to reassure tourists and citizens that the predominantly Buddhist kingdom is safe.

WAR.WIRE