![]() |
In widely-publicized remarks, Hu urged the use of high technology to improve national defense, seemingly hijacking one of Jiang's pet topics.
"It seems that Jiang Zemin is in a disadvantaged position," said Wu Guoguang, a former top official who now teaches at Chinese University of Hong Kong.
"Maybe Hu Jintao is utilizing his advantage in government from his battle against SARS to stretch out towards the military area," he said.
Hu, along with Premier Wen Jiabao, has built up valuable political capital throughout China's campaign against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), according to some observers.
Hu and his cohorts may have been slow to react, but after they decided to come clean on the epidemic, they appear to have reaped wide public kudos for their active, relatively transparent handling.
This could be why Hu considers the timing opportune for decisively stepping onto Jiang's military turf, attempting to seize the ageing politician's last secure bastion, according to analysts.
As Jiang's generation of leaders gradually relinquished power over the past year, Hu was made first general secretary of the Communist Party and then state president.
But crucially, 76-year-old Jiang held on to the chairmanship of the powerful Central Military Commission, effectively making him commander-in-chief.
With Jiang in possession of what is arguably the most important position in China, an uneasy status quo has been created that cannot last forever, observers say.
"As general secretary of the party, Hu has to concern himself with all policy areas, and certainly he doesn't want to see himself excluded from the military and defense fields," said Joseph Cheng, a China watcher at City University of Hong Kong.
"Jiang Zemin may not like it, but it's only natural. He can't hold on to power forever."
Elite political infighting may be one reason why Hu decided to raise his profile on military matters, but there is another sense in which the time was just right, according to analysts.
Hu left Beijing on Monday for his first overseas trip since becoming head of state in March, taking him to Russia and to a meeting of the Group of Eight industrialized nations in France.
It is likely that he wants to establish the necessary authority before scheduled encounters with a range of world leaders, including Russia's President Vladimir Putin and US President George W. Bush.
"He's going abroad, and he will meet Putin and Bush, and he wants to show that he is in charge of national defense and the military," said Cheng.
Even the launch Sunday of a Chinese navigation and positioning satellite was "probably" timed to coincide with Hu's visit, showing China's potential capabilities in the field of space warfare, he said.
There are enough reasons why Hu would want to establish his military credentials ahead of his foreign trip.
With Putin, Hu will want to discuss future weapons purchases from Russia, analysts say.
The meeting with Bush could focus on US plans, deeply worrying to China, of establishing an anti-ballistic missile defense.
Once Hu returns to Beijing 10 days from now, it will gradually become clearer if he has gained the upper hand in China's Byzantine politics.
But even if China is now really entering the end of the Jiang era, the former president is likely to continue to wield immense influence, according to Chinese University's Wu.
"He has so many agents, he has so many representatives," he said.
WAR.WIRE |