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Philippine coup attempt will be bodyblow to economy: analysts
MANILA (AFP) Jul 27, 2003
President Gloria Arroyo boosted her stock with her tough handling of a Philippines military rebellion Sunday, but analysts and business leaders warned the short-lived crisis would have scared off investors and tourists.

They said the peaceful outcome of the day-old revolt, with hardly a gunshot fired in anger, would have been tempered by grave damage to near-term economic prospects.

"Once more, this has been a triumph for democracy," Arroyo said in a late night television address after 296 rebels including 70 officers agreed to end their 20-hour occupation of a Manila commercial complex and return to barracks.

It set the stage for a dramatic visit to Congress on Monday, when she is scheduled to deliver her annual state of the nation address.

The rebel occupation of the district, including plush apartments inhabited by foreign diplomats and business executives, was the eighth military uprising here in 17 years.

Apart from its non-violent conduct, the rising had followed the script of a 1989 week-long coup attempt when another band of rebels turned a district of high rise luxury hotels, condominiums and malls into a bloody battleground.

"Definitely there is a negative effect" on the economy, Employers Confederation of the Philippines president Donald Dee said.

With its swift and peaceful conclusion however, "hopefully this will be a shallow dip," he told local television.

"What we have to concentrate on now is putting very specific programs in place and also to concentrate on our domestic economy because we have to show the world that we are working together," he added.

US ambassador to the Philippines Francis Ricciardone predicted a peaceful outcome as early as midday, noting that the rebels had let trapped guests out unharmed. He concluded that they only wanted to make a point without attempting to grab power.

However, "people around the world are now wondering about the stability of the Philippines," he told reporters.

"The people who undertake actions like these have to calculate the consequences for their country. Evidently they profess to be patriotic and care about their country, but what they have now done is cast their country in the worst possible light."

The mutineers had demanded that three top security men including Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes step down, accusing his department of selling munitions to guerrillas and of sponsoring terrorist activity.

Trade Secretary Manuel Roxas said early Sunday the crisis put business "in a state of shock."

He noted the 1989 coup "brought down our economy to nearly zero growth -- it took us several years before our economy began to recover."

After the mutineers allowed about 300 residents, including the Australian and Argentine ambassadors who were trapped inside the booby-trapped buildings overnight Saturday, Arroyo declared a "state of rebellion" and gave the mutineers until dark to surrender or face attack.

In the aftermath, fears lingered that military restiveness could persist.

Rebel Navy Lieutenant Senior Grade Antonio Trillantes sounded a note of defiance even after their effective surrender.

"When the government commits abuses, oppression, if there is graft and corruption they (people) would be grateful that there is a group that will help them," he said as he and his men decamped from the complex.

To put the genie back in the bottle, Manila must "put in enough disincentives for this activity," analyst Alex Magno of the Manila-based think tank Foundation for Economic Freedom said.

He said harsher penalties for mutiny, better pay, and education could help.

Arroyo met with a group of junior military officers last week and pledged to address their concerns over low pay, inadequate housing, and alleged corruption by top brass.

The rebels' concerns over poor logistics support to field troops fighting communist and Muslim separatist rebellions are valid, military chief of staff General Narciso Abaya said.

"There were some issues that will have to be resolved, like for one example is how to bring the logistics as far forward as possible."

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