The annual report to Congress on Chinese military power said Beijing is adding annually 75 short-range missiles across from Taiwan and is acquiring or developing weapons and tactics aimed at countering technologically superior US forces.

"The PLA's (Peoples Liberation Army's) offensive capabilities improve as each year passes, providing Beijing, in the absence of an effective response by Taiwan, with an increasing number of credible military options to intimidate or actually attack Taiwan," said the report.

"Should China use force, its primary goal likely would be to compel a negotiated solution on terms favorable to Beijing," it said.

"Beijing would most likely seek a rapid collapse of Taiwan's national will to preclude the United States from intervening on Taipei's behalf," the report said.

Specific coercive military strategies remain unclear and may be the subject of internal debate, the report said.

But they could include a gradual escalation of military pressure; a major surprise attack aimed at overwhelming the Taiwan military; or "a decapitation strategy" that would seek to neutralize its political and military leadership, the report said.

"Coercive military options might include, but are not limited to, information operations, an air and missile campaign, a naval blockade, or a rapid attack designed to catch Taiwan off guard and present Taipei and Washington with a fait accompli," it said.

"With little warning, Beijing might choose to quickly seize key terrain on Taiwan using amphibious or airborne forces with the threat of major destruction as the means to compel some form of capitulation," the report said.

It noted that Chinese leaders have taken a softer line toward Taiwan over the past year, and that they recognize that a war could severely damage its regional and global interests.

"Chinese leaders reportedly believe that failure in any military venture against Taiwan would pose a threat to the survival of Communist Party rule," it said.

Nevertheless, it said the modernization program, along with Beijing's refusal to rule out the use of force, "casts a cloud over its declared preference for resolving differences with Taiwan through peaceful means."

Moreover, the report said the PLA believes that surprise and deception are crucial for the success of a military campaign.

"With no apparent political prohibitions against pre-emption, the PLA requires shock as a force multiplier, to catch Taiwan, or another potential adversary such as the United States, unprepared," the report said.

It said a suprize missile and air strike on Taiwan would most likely damage severely most of Taiwan's air bases, thereby crippling the island's most formidable line of defense, its air force.

"In response to external intervention in a regional conflict involving China, the PLA would attempt to weaken US or other third party's resolve by demonstrating the capability to hold at risk -- or actually striking -- high-value assets," the report said.

Currently, China's most immediate threat to Taiwan is a force of 450 short-range ballistic missiles in the Nanjing Military Region across the Taiwan straits from Taipei, the report said.

The PLA is developing variants of the CSS-6 missile that would enable attacks against Okinawa when forward deployed or against Taiwan when deployed further inland, it said.

"As Beijing increases the accuracy and lethality of its conventional ballistic missile arsenal, a growing and significant challenge is posed to the US forces in the western Pacific, as well as to allies and friends, including Taiwan," it said.

It cited one Chinese military publication, Junshi Wenzhai, as claiming China already had a trump card to counter US air superiority in the western Pacific: simultaneous attack on aircraft carriers with fighter bombers, submarines, anti-ship missiles, torpedoes and mines.

Besides acquiring modern Russian-designed fighter aircraft, destroyers and submarines, China also is taking aim at the United States's high-tech edge with cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, as well as efforts to develop radiofrequency weapons and possibly anti-satellite weapons.

WAR.WIRE