The comments by joint chief of staff General Babakir Zebari were the most explicit to date by a pro-American Iraqi official in terms of when Iraqi forces would be ready to protect their country and the US role could be reduced.

A leading defense expert cautioned Zebari's prognosis was overly optimistic, but the general's comments reflect the fundamental principles guiding both Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and the American military.

On Wednesday, US President George W. Bush said US troops would "complete the mission as quickly as possible" but stopped short of providing a timetable for withdrawal.

Zebari works closely with Lieutenant General David Petraeus, the US pointman on training Iraqi security forces, and directs Iraq's army, due to number more than 60,000 by March.

"Between six months to a year maximum, the multi-national forces can go to their bases. We'll be able to control the security situation," Zebari, the commander of Iraq's armed forces, told AFP.

"Once we can control the security, we won't need them (the Americans) anymore. We'll need maybe one or two bases just to make sure no foreign countries try to invade," he said.

After a large-scale reduction of US troops, Zebari said a few American bases would serve as a security guarantee and cut down Iraq's defense costs, allowing the country to spend more money on infrastructure and job creation.

Zebari said he foresaw the Pentagon's plan to send up to 10,000 US military advisers to assist Iraqi forces, extending well beyond 2005, even if the larger US troop presence shrinks.

"We actually do need a lot of them. We would like to see more of them coming on," Zebari said.

A senior defense official in the United States endorsed Zebari's projection on the redeployment of US troops from cities but refrained from elaborating on base numbers.

"I can tell you that his regional control vision is consistent with ours. We would hope that regional control is possible," he told AFP.

"I am more conservative, less sanguine, on the timeline, but my opinion differs from his by months, not years."

For his part, Allawi on Tuesday refused to fix a date for the withdrawal of US troops, calling those who do so dangerous and reckless.

Despite a reluctance by other American and Iraqi officials to give a timeline on the progress of Iraqi troops, Zebari's comments shed light on the basic principles guiding Allawi's and the US military's approach to security.

Both US generals and Allawi have spoken of a phased US reduction, as Iraq's army and police take on a greater share of the security burden, with American soldiers being removed to regional bases away from cities and the troop size gradually shrinking.

Last June, Lieutenant General Thomas Metz, America's number-two officer in Iraq, told AFP he hoped that Iraqis would manage day-to-day security by Spring 2005, with US forces, outside of the cities, sent in as a last resort.

Under regional control, Major Chris Prigge, a chief military planner, told AFP the US bases around Baghdad, and north and west of the capital, once numbering around 100, would be cut to 13 to 17 across 10 provinces.

From those bases, emergency response would come within hours not minutes unless the Iraqis directed otherwise, he said.

The final phase of US operations in Iraq envisions the reduction of US bases to two or three major bases, likely located far away from any major population centers, Prigge said.

It is this stage that Zebari believes is feasible in 12 months' time.

Some factors that could infringe on Zebari's optimism are the provinces of Al-Anbar and Nineveh, along with cities like Samarra in Salaheddin province, where Iraqi police forces are in varied states of disrepair.

Defense expert Anthony Cordesman, with the Washington-based Center for International and Strategic Studies, who has closely studied Iraqi security forces, was more skeptical.

"It may well be that Iraqi forces will be strong enough to be replacing US forces by late 2005.

"But at present they cannot really operate without the support of US forces and they lack armor, firepower, overall protection, communications, and the quality of leadership and discipline that can only come with experience."