"I expect turbulence in the short term," he told the newspaper Corriere della Sera in an interview.

"The electoral process is a fundamental matter, and all those seeking to prevent the vote will afterwards try to put obstacles in the way of normalisation," he warned.

But Di Paola said the situation was expected to improve in the medium term.

Italy has deployed a 3,000-strong military force in Iraq to back the US-led intervention.

The contingent is based in the southern Nassiryah region, where it has frequently been the target of killings and attacks.

Twenty Italian military personnel have been killed since operations began. The most recent, a 31 year-old NCO, was mortally wounded during a helicopter sortie on January 21.

Italy is also to deploy 400 military personnel in Afghanistan this spring for duties in Herat province. In August it will take over command of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.

"To be able to do that we'll have to send at least 1,500 men to Kabul," Di Paola said.