- A proven system -

Introduced in 1985, the Patriot has been continuously updated since its first deployment against Iraqi Scud missiles in the Gulf War, allowing it to intercept ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

Each battery consists of a control station and mobile launchers equipped with four interceptor missiles, each costing several million dollars.

The latest radar version, which has only just gone into service in the US, allows 360-degree coverage. Previous models only cover a 120-degree arc.

Patriot is in service in 18 countries, including Ukraine, which has a few batteries.

Its interception range is up to 70 km (43.5 miles) against aircraft and cruise missiles for the Patriot PAC-2 version, and between 20 and 35 km against ballistic missiles for thePatriot PAC-3, according to US army data.

Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the PAC-3 MSE missile, plans to increase production from 500 missiles in 2024 to 650 in 2027.

Raytheon, which produces the missiles for PAC-2, expects to boost its monthly output by 150 percent by 2028, Tom Laliberty, its president in charge of air defence systems, told AFP. He did not, however, reveal its current production level.

- How useful against Russian attacks? -

The challenge for Ukrainians is that the Russians are aiming more airborne weapons at their cities - including many cheap drones - and these attacks are also becoming increasingly effective.

Over the past week, Russia launched over 1,800 Geran-2 (the Russian version of the Iranian Shahed-136) alongside decoy long-range drones, according to Fabian Hoffman, a research fellow at the University of Oslo.

"This marks a sharp increase in the average intensity of long-range drone attacks per day, peaking at 728 combined drones and decoys on July 9", not counting ballistic and cruise missiles, he said.

In comparison, the most intense salvo last winter, on February 23, involved 267 drones.

While Patriots are useful against high-performance missiles, their deployment against a mass of Shahed drones is "a waste of resources", researcher Joseph Henrotin, who is editor-in-chief of the Defence and International Security (DSI) journal, said in a podcast last week.

Each Geran-2 costs an estimated $30,000 to $70,000, according to Hoffman, who said that western arsenals currently lack cost-effective interceptors for defence against long-range drones.

"This forces Ukraine - and, in a future conflict, European states - to choose between expending interceptor missiles that cost 20 times more than the drone, relying on anti-aircraft guns that are not widely available, or allowing the drone through and accepting the resulting damage," he said.

Even against manoeuvring Russian ballistic missiles like the Iskander or Kinzhal, the Patriot's performance is limited.

"Until a few weeks ago, Patriots regularly intercepted Iskander missiles. Now, they struggle more because the Russians have started using their manoeuvring capabilities," said a European missile defence specialist who did not wish to be identified.

The rate of successful interceptions of such missiles has fallen by about 10 percentage points from last winter to 86 percent currently, said Henrotin.

- What impact on the course of the war? -

With its missile strikes aimed at cities, Russia is forcing Ukraine to allocate significant resources to the protection of its population.

"Additional means can indeed help to better concentrate Ukraine's air defense efforts," said one western military source who declined to be named.

However, the overall trend points to a slow and steady weakening of Ukrainian positions amid Russian territorial gains.

"I fear that Russia might be able to last five minutes longer" than western support for Ukraine, French armed forces chief-of-staff Thierry Burkhard said last month.

And even if the US delivers Patriot systems to Ukraine "over the next year or two", Russia will be able to hike missile and drone production in response, said a high-ranking western officer who declined to be named.

The current annual production of Patriot systems -- between 850 and 880 -- is only just above the lowest estimate for Iskander and Kinzhal production, cautioned Hoffman.

Russian cruise missile production, of the Kalibr et Kh-101 type, is greater still, he said.

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LOCKHEED MARTIN

RTX Corporation