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OIL AND GAS
Bank of England gauges impact of lower oil prices
by Daniel J. Graeber
London (UPI) Nov 10, 2015


Crude oil tugs on price at the pump
Washington (UPI) Nov 10, 2015 - Midweek fluctuations in crude oil prices and lower processing at refineries are keeping retail gasoline prices from falling dramatically, analysts said.

Motor club AAA reports a national average retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline at $2.21 per gallon, a minor decline from the previous day, but about 0.8 percent higher than last week.

Gasoline prices are tied largely to crude oil prices, as well as refinery and transit infrastructure issues. For crude oil prices, last week saw steep spikes and heavy declines amid global macroeconomic data and information showing an increase in Russian crude oil production.

Tuesday marks the fourth straight day of declines in the national average price for gasoline, although that follows six straight days of an increase. Avery Ash, a spokesman for AAA, said in a November report on retail gasoline prices that mid-month increases are possible because refinery maintenance has been heavier than normal.

"Gas prices likely will increase during the first half of November, but that trend might not last long," he said.

Prices in the Midwest were elevated in August and September because of issues at regional refineries, including at BP's refinery in Whiting, Ind., one of the nation's largest. AAA said the Midwest region has experienced "heavy" refinery maintenance because of higher production during the summer's peak driving season.

Any spikes in gasoline prices will be temporary, however, as most refineries are expected to wrap up heavy maintenance by the end of the month. A survey of federal data from analysts at the consumer price monitor GasBuddy.com finds refiners are starting to process more crude oil as maintenance issues are addressed.

"GasBuddy anticipates that the bulk of maintenance will be completed by Thanksgiving, and should lead to an overall cooler climate at the pump for the holiday season," it said in an emailed report.

There are six states with an average price below the $2 mark. South Carolina has the lowest state average in the nation with $1.95 per gallon.

With about 60 percent of the drop in crude oil prices linked to demand issues, the Bank of England suggested pressure may be negative for the British economy.

Lower crude oil prices have translated to a de facto form of stimulus to consumers and consuming nations, but left exporters struggling to cope with weakened economies.

The Canadian economy most recently said it was flirting with recession. In September, the Russian Central Bank warned of a prolonged slump in crude oil prices and said there were "persistent risks of considerable economic cooling" in Russia.

The Bank of England said in a November report on inflation there were key market factors to gauge when determining the risks of lower crude oil prices to the British economy.

"The implications of recent falls in oil prices for U.K. activity will depend on the extent to which they reflect stronger supply or weaker demand," it said.

Crude oil prices in mid-2014 started moving below the $100 per barrel mark as the United States moved to a top-tier oil producer. By late 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said they were keeping production steady, arguing they needed to protect their market share in the era of U.S. shale.

By mid-2015, concerns about the health of the European economy and signs of a slowdown in Asia raised questions about long-term demand. In its inflation report, the Bank of England said if the decline in crude oil prices is a result of softer demand, it could spell trouble for the British economy.

The bank suggested about two-thirds of the decline in crude oil prices during the last six months was likely tied to demand dynamics.

"Supply factors, however, are estimated to have been a more significant driver of the overall fall in oil prices since mid-2014," it stressed.

Despite the either-or assessment, the bank said inflation is expected to remain weak, below 1 percent, until at least the second half of 2016.

"While growth in advanced economies has continued and broadened, the [bank's] committee nonetheless expects the overall pace of U.K.-weighted global growth to be more modest than had been expected," it said.


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