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TRADE WARS
China a drag on steel demand: trade body
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Oct 06, 2014


Bank of Japan strikes less-optimistic tone on economy
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 07, 2014 - The Bank of Japan on Tuesday struck a less optimistic tone on its view of the world's number three economy, but it held off launching fresh monetary easing measures after a two-day meeting.

The central bank, which has been upbeat on Japan's prospects, flagged housing and industrial production as weak spots in a statement outlining its unanimous decision.

It added that an uptick in business sentiment has "paused" on the back of an April sales tax hike that led to a sharp contraction in second-quarter gross domestic product.

"Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend," the BoJ statement said, but it noted "some weakness, particularly on the production side" as demand dived after the introduction of April's sales tax hike.

Investors will now turn their focus to governor Haruhiko Kuroda's post-meeting comments as speculation increases that the BoJ will be forced to act as the economy continues to struggle.

Kuroda's upbeat take on Japan's economy has appeared increasingly at odds with the official data, as Japan's economy suffered in the April-June quarter its deepest contraction since the 2011 quake-tsunami.

The rise was seen as crucial to chopping a mammoth public debt but economists warned it could derail a budding recovery in an economy beset by years of deflation.

The 1.8 percent dip in gross domestic product -- or a 7.1 percent contraction at an annualised rate -- gave the clearest picture yet of the tax hike's impact, and threw into question Tokyo's plans for another rise next year.

Millions of shoppers made a last-minute dash to stores before prices went up on April 1, which was followed by a slump in spending.

Global demand for steel will grow by just 2.0 percent this year owing to a rebalancing of the Chinese economy and a slowdown in other emerging countries, the sector's trade body said on Monday.

The growth forecast to 1,562 million tonnes in steel use by the World Steel Association is down from the 3.1 percent rate it forecast in April and the 3.8 percent recorded in 2013.

"The positive momentum in global steel demand seen in the second half of 2013 abated in 2014 with weaker than expected performance in the emerging and developing economies," the head of the association's economics committee, Hans Juergen Kerhoff, said in a statement.

"The slowdown in China's steel demand reflecting the structural transformation of the economy has contributed significantly to our lower global growth projection," he added.

The WSA now expects just 1.0 percent growth in China's steel use this year to 748.3 million tonnes, and 0.8 percent growth in 2015.

"In China rebalancing (of the economy) will continue to act as a drag on steel demand," said Kerhoff.

Falling commodity prices, structural constraints and geopolitical tensions also let to a "major slowdown" in South America and the CIS countries.

The WSA now expects recoveries in the EU, United States and Japan to be stronger, but not enough to compensate for the slowdown in emerging economies.

A drop of 0.4 percent in US steel use last year is being followed by an upwardly revised 6.7 percent jump this year thanks to strong growth in the automotive and energy sectors, said the WSA. Growth is expected to continue at a rate of 1.9 percent last year.

After growing by 2.1 percent last year, demand growth is expected to accelerate to 2.3 percent this year in Japan to 66.8 million tonnes.

In the EU, demand growth is expected to jump from 0.8 percent last year to 4 percent this year to 145.9 million tonnes, then slow to 2.9 percent in 2015.

The WSA now expects steel use to rise by 4 percent in developed countries this year, then slow to 1.7 percent growth in 2015.

Emerging and developing economies, excluding China, are expected to see a 1.7 percent increase in demand this year which will then pick up to 4.7 percent in 2015.

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