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China's trade surplus with US narrows in January
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Feb 14, 2019

China's January inflation comes in slower than expected
Beijing (AFP) Feb 15, 2019 - Factory and consumer price inflation in China rose at a slower rate than expected in January as global growth cools and the US trade war drags on, official data showed Friday.

The producer price index (PPI) -- an important barometer of the industrial sector that measures the cost of goods at the factory gate -- rose 0.1 percent on-year in January, compared with a 0.9 percent rise the previous month.

The reading extends a six-month slowdown in which price growth has eased each month since a high of 4.7 percent last June.

Slower factory-gate inflation reflects sluggish demand, while a turn to deflation could dent corporate profits.

The consumer price index (CPI) -- a key measure of retail inflation -- rose 1.7 percent, compared with 1.9 percent in December.

Both readings fell short of the expectations of economists polled by Bloomberg News.

PPI hit a two-year low and CPI a 12-month low, Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a research note.

"Although CPI remains at a comfortable level, falling producer prices are a concern since these are highly correlated with profit growth in industry," said Evans-Pritchard.

"With factory-gate deflation likely to deepen in the coming months, we expect policymakers to roll out further measures to ease financial pressure on industrial firms."

American and Chinese trade negotiators are holding their latest round of trade talks in Beijing, trying to work out a dispute that he seen them impose tit-for-tat tariffs on billions of dollars in trade goods.

The trade war and slowing global growth has started to bite in China, which has posted a string of poor economic data in recent months.

GDP growth fell in 2018 to a nearly 30-year low of 6.6 percent.

China's trade surplus with the US narrowed in January even as its American imports continued to plunge, official data released on Thursday showed, as officials from the world's top two economies sat down for crucial trade talks in Beijing.

China's exports across the Pacific fell more than 2 percent in January from a year earlier, data from the customs administration showed, after shrinking in December.

Still China's trade surplus with the US for the month stood at $27.3 billion. Last year it hit a record $323.3 billion.

It is a major source of anger within the Trump administration, which imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods last year and has threatened more to come.

Officials from the world's top two economies are holding negotiations in Beijing on Thursday and Friday in a bid to resolve their thorny trade dispute.

Trump in December postponed plans to sharply hike tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports until March 1 to allow more time for negotiations. This week he indicated he was open to extending the trade truce depending on progress in Beijing.

"Based on the positive signals from the US-China trade negotiations, further tariff hikes will likely be suspended," noted Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics, adding he expected continued pressure on exports due to a global slowdown and the existing US tariffs.

-Global trade-

China's exports to the world -- all countries including the US -- unexpectedly rose 9.1 percent in January from a year earlier, turning a corner after exports fell in December.

"One possible explanation for January's upbeat export data could be some re-arrangement of regional supply chains on the back of the ongoing China-US trade dispute," said Betty Wang, an economist at ANZ bank.

Exports to Europe and ASEAN countries surged, she wrote in the research note.

China's imports, however, continued to fall in January, down 1.5 percent from a year earlier, though at a slower pace than a 10.2 percent decline forecast by Bloomberg News.

"The import slowdown in recent months obviously in part reflects the slowdown in China's domestic economy," said Kuijs.

A slew of bad economic data has added to concerns about China's economy, which grew at its slowest pace in almost three decades last year.

Analysts cautioned that it is difficult to compare trends at the start of each year due to the Chinese New Year holiday, which came in early February this year and can affect business activity.

"The broad trend in shipments still appears to be pointing down," said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics.

"The downbeat outlook for global growth means that this year is likely to be challenging for Chinese exporters, even if the ongoing US-China trade negotiations culminate in a deal," Evans-Pritchard wrote in a research note.


Related Links
Global Trade News


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