When the Shenzhou 10 mission launches, Wang Yaping will become China's second woman in space. This is beyond question, due to repeated confirmations by China. There will also be two male astronauts on board the mission. However, at this stage there is no clear as to who they will be.

The early disclosure of Wang Yaping's place on the mission, which was first reported in early April this year, was an unusual event for China's space program. The identity of astronauts to be included on a mission is normally kept officially secret until very shortly before a mission. Never before had China made such a precise revelation months before launch!

We could speculate on why China did this. One reason could be the kudos that the announcement would attract. There is a strong level of interest and support in seeing women fly in space, and they remain under-represented in almost every astronaut program in existence.

Another reason could have been common sense. China had earlier disclosed that there was a plan to launch a woman on Shenzhou 10, and there was really only one likely candidate for this position. China has only two female astronauts. One has already flown, and is considered unlikely to fly again in the foreseeable future. Thus, it wasn't hard to guess Wang's identity.

This analyst does not know exactly how China is managing the selection process for the crew of Shenzhou 10, which is fairly opaque. But we could reasonably speculate on some of the potential influences on this unusual modus of disclosing the crew.

There is no real evidence to support this theory, but there has been no evidence presented to dismiss it. I would suggest that there is a possibility that the identities of the two male astronauts were not fixed at the time that Wang's place was revealed, and their identities may not even be precisely know right now.

It has been widely assumed by most analysts that the crew of Shenzhou 10 would be the back-up crew for Shenzhou 9. This makes sense, as it is a similar mission and the crew has already undergone extensive training. This crew consisted of the aforementioned Wang Yaping, with veteran astronaut Nie Haisheng and the unflown astronaut Zhang Xiaoguang. When Wang was named, analysts took it as further evidence that this crew was assigned to the mission.

What if our assumptions were too simple? What if plans have somehow changed in the meantime? Yes, this is a wilder theory than simply graduating a backup crew, but it's worth exploring.

It could be the case that there are two teams of two male astronauts in training, and both are still competing. One will eventually win out and be assigned to join Wang on Shenzhou 10. This would be unusual for space mission planning, as crews normally train together to build up teamwork skills. But what if Wang is simply training with both potential crews?

The alternative explanation for this media policy is that China had decided that naming one astronaut early was enough, and it was better to keep the crew under wraps. The disclosure of Wang's identity was the real anomaly in this plan, and the hidden identities of the other astronauts should be viewed as standard practice. All things considered, this remains the most likely theory.

Until we know for sure, nothing can be entirely ruled out. China should end the confusion and tell us who will be aboard Shenzhou 10.

Dr Morris Jones is an Australian space analyst who has covered the Shenzhou program for Spacedaily.Com since 1999. Email morrisjonesNOSPAMhotmail.com. Replace NOSPAM with @ to send email. Dr Jones will answer email inquiries.