Global weather fluctuations called El Nino events are likely to become more frequent by 2040, a new study shows.

El Nino - the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean -affects climate, ecosystems and societies worldwide.

The study examined four possible scenarios for future carbon emissions, and found increased risk of El Nino events in all four.

This means El Nino events and associated climate extremes are now more likely "regardless of any significant mitigation actions" to reduce emissions, the researchers warn.

Lead author Dr Jun Ying, from the Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources in China and the University of Exeter, said: "We know from previous studies that, when measuring El Nino changes in terms of rainfall shifts in the eastern equatorial Pacific, models predict an increase in the frequency of events.

"This study shows that those changes could happen after the next two decades."

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, examines the "time of emergence" of changes in the tropical Pacific using state-of-the-art climate models.

The time of emergence is defined as when the signal of climate change emerges from the usual background noise of natural climate variability.

When looking at changes in El Nino rainfall patterns, the best estimate of the time of emergence of changes converges on 2040 in all of the four emissions scenarios considered.

Co-author Professor Mat Collins, from the University of Exeter and part of the Global Systems Institute, added: "What surprised us is that changes emerge regardless of the scenario we look at.

"Because rainfall in the tropics is associated with the warmest sea surface temperatures (SSTs), it is the relative changes in SST that are more important than the absolute change.

"This leads us to the rather stark conclusion that these changes are essentially unavoidable."

The study was carried out by Dr Ying as part of a year-long Chinese Scholarship Council sponsored visit to the University of Exeter.

Research Report: "Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific. Nature Climate Change"

Related Links
University of Exeter
Water News - Science, Technology and Politics

Tweet

Thanks for being here; We need your help. The Space Media Network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain. With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords. Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year. If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceMediaNetwork Contributor $5 Billed Once credit card or paypal		SpaceMediaNetwork Monthly Supporter $5 Billed Monthly paypal only

'Proud' Tongans determined to rebuild battered homeland after eruption
Nuku'Alofa, Tonga (AFP) Jan 22, 2022
Tongans said they were determined to rebuild their battered homeland in the wake of last week's devastating eruption and tsunami as a massive clean up continued Saturday in the Pacific kingdom. The powerful eruption of the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano last Saturday triggered a tsunami that crashed across the Tongan archipelago, affecting more than 80 percent of the population, according to the United Nations. Tongan journalist Marian Kupu said most locals are adamant on remaining as the hug ... read more