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OIL AND GAS
Iran expecting foreign cash in oil sector
by Daniel J. Graeber
Tehran (UPI) Apr 6, 2015


Oil up as Iran output boost seen as distant
New York (AFP) April 6, 2015 - Oil prices bolted higher Monday on doubts last week's nuclear agreement between Iran and global powers will soon lift crude supplies.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for May delivery jumped $3 to $52.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

European benchmark Brent oil for May delivery gained $3.17 to $58.12 a barrel in London.

Oil prices had fallen Thursday on news of a framework agreed between Iran and international powers that paves the way for Tehran to curtail its nuclear activity in exchange for relief from punishing economic sanctions, including on oil investment.

But by Monday, traders concluded the agreement would not have a near-term effect on crude supplies.

"There is a realization Iranian oil is not going to flow in the world market for quite some time," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.

Phil Flynn, an analyst with the Price Futures Group, said there are still many hurdles until sanctions are lifted. Such a move would require additional negotiations with Iran, as well as clearance from international weapons inspectors and some sort of resolution in the US legislature, where Republicans have balked at the agreement.

"It may be a year at the earliest that we will see that Iranian crude hit the market and by that time the oil glut should ease," Flynn said.

The Iran deal is "headline bearish for oil prices," said a Morgan Stanley note. "However, finalizing details by June will be difficult. Even if successful, little oil is expected by year-end."

Analysts said the oil market also gained support from news that Saudi Arabia raised prices on crude shipments to Asia.

Foreign investors are expected to flood the Iranian market as sanctions relief expands the country's oil potential, officials said Monday.

Iran could see sanctions pressures ease if a framework agreement reached last week in Switzerland enters into force in July. Iran, under the terms of the agreement, would pull back substantially from the brink of developing a nuclear weapon.

Iran is limited to around 1 million barrels of oil per day in exports under the terms of a November 2013 deal with international powers. Exports could double if all sanctions are released later this year.

"After July 1, foreign investors will flock to Iran, particularly to the oil and petrochemical sectors," Abbas Sheri-Moqaddam, director of the National Petroleum Co., said. "We must prepare ourselves for such an event starting now.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh said during the weekend the Islamic republic could return as a dominant force in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries once the nuclear deal is formalized. Iran holds the third-largest proven oil reserves among OPEC member states, behind Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, respectively.

The National Petroleum Co. director said the domestic oil and petrochemical sector was in dire need of investments to return to its full glory.

"Under the present circumstances, this industry needs $8 billion a year of investment to make up for its backwardness," he said.

The Iranian nuclear agreement faces an uphill battle in a U.S. Congress controlled by leaders wary of Iran's regional influence.


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