The study finds that by 2100, 21% of the 318 settlements situated on Arctic permafrost coastlines are at risk of damage from coastal erosion, while 45% face impacts from sea level rise. Alarmingly, 77% of Arctic infrastructure could be located on unstable ground due to permafrost thaw, leading to crumbling and subsiding landscapes.
Published in Earth's Future, the study combines satellite imagery and multiple datasets to assess erosion rates, sea level rise, and permafrost thaw projections for 2030, 2050, and 2100. Annett Bartsch, founder of the Earth research company b.geos and study director, emphasized the lack of focus on human settlements compared to the natural Arctic environment.
"The number of people living along the Arctic coasts is comparatively small, but these people are highly affected by climate change, especially the Indigenous communities," Bartsch said.
The study identifies traditional hunting- and fishing-based communities as comprising 53% of Arctic settlements. Mining facilities account for 20%, with military installations, research stations, and tourist services making up the remainder. Much of this infrastructure supports populations living outside the Arctic, Bartsch noted.
Currently, coastal erosion is the most widespread threat, with average retreat rates of 3 meters (10 feet) per year, while specific areas are eroding as quickly as 20 meters (67 feet) annually.
"Settlements are already impacted by the increased rate of coastal erosion," Bartsch explained. "More buildings and roads will be affected by 2030."
The study's findings on future sea level rise proved unexpected, as relative sea levels in the Arctic have been falling due to post-glacial rebound and ice loss.
"People usually talk about sea level rise in other regions, not regarding the Arctic," Bartsch said. "But if one looks at the numbers, more Arctic settlements will be affected by sea level rise than by coastal erosion over the long run."
The combination of climate hazards, such as shifting storm patterns, erosion, and land subsidence, amplifies risks for Arctic communities. Rodrigue Tanguy, lead author of the study and researcher at b.geos, highlighted the potential for dramatic landscape changes.
"For example, along the coasts of Alaska, Canada, and Siberia, there is a huge number of lakes on permafrost," Tanguy said. "If subsidence and erosion trigger breaches in these lakes, there will be a totally different coastal landscape."
Research Report:Pan-Arctic Assessment of Coastal Settlements and Infrastructure Vulnerable to Coastal Erosion, Sea-Level Rise, and Permafrost Thaw
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