Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Military Space News .




POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: U.S. work force shrinks
by Peter Morici
College Park, Md. (UPI) May 4, 2012


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April -- much less than expected and not enough to keep up with natural population growth. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent because another 522,000 adults quit looking for work and are no longer counted.

In the weakest recovery since the Great Depression more than four-fifths of the reduction in unemployment has been accomplished by a dropping adult labor force participation rate -- essentially, persuading adults they don't need a job or the job they could find isn't worth having.

In the first quarter, gross domestic product growth slowed to 2.2 percent and was largely sustained by consumers taking on more debt and additions to business inventory. The housing market is improving and that should lift residential construction a bit but overall the economy and jobs growth should slow further in the second quarter. The April jobs report bares evidence to a slowing pace of economic expansion and is a precursor of more consumer caution.

Manufacturing added 15,000 jobs, down from 28,000 in March. That sector's strong recovery should be generating more gains. Elsewhere jobs gains were weak and generally down from February.

Construction shed 2,000 jobs and transportation and warehousing lost 17,000 employees, as logistic companies brace for a further slowdown.

The government lost 15,000 jobs and the private sector added 130,000.

Other sectors of the economy posted generally modest gains.

Gains in manufacturing production haven't instigated stronger improvements in employment largely because so much of the growth is focused in high-value activity. Assembly work, outside the auto patch, remains handicapped by the exchange rate situation with the Chinese yuan. And concerns about the durability of the recovery and healthcare costs when Obamacare is fully implemented make employers very cautious about adding to headcount.

Overall, the situation with the yuan is the single largest impediment to more robust growth in manufacturing and its broader multiplier effects for the rest of the economy; the Obama administration indicated it has no intention of challenging China on this issue, but presumptive GOP standard bearer Mitt Romney promises a harder line.

The private sector less the heavily subsidized healthcare and social services industries and temporary businesses services, only added 91,000 jobs. In the months ahead, gains in core private sector employment must improve dramatically if the economy is to halt the decline in real wages and provide federal, state and local governments with adequate revenues, and that is not happening fast enough.

The economic crisis in Europe and mounting problems in China's housing and banking sectors continue to instigate worries among U.S. businesses about a second major recession, and these discourage new hiring. The U.S. economy continues to expand albeit moderately but is quite vulnerable to shock waves from crises in European and Asia.

Factoring in those discouraged adults and others working part time for lack of full time opportunities, the unemployment rate is about 14.5 percent. Adding college graduates in low-skill positions, like counterwork at Starbucks, and the unemployment rate is likely closer to 18 percent.

Prospects for lowering those dreadful statistics remain slim. The economy must add 13.3 million jobs over the next three years -- 370,000 each month -- to bring unemployment down to 6 percent.

Growth in the range of 4-5 percent is needed to get unemployment down to 6 percent over the next several years. In 2011, the economy grew at about 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter but that is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2012.

Growth is weak and jobs are in jeopardy because temporary tax cuts, stimulus spending, large federal deficits, expensive but ineffective business regulations, and costly health care mandates don't address structural problems holding back dynamic growth and jobs creation -- the huge trade deficit and dysfunctional energy policies.

Oil and trade with China account for nearly the entire $600 billion trade deficit. This deficit is a tax on domestic demand that erases the benefits of tax cuts and stimulus spending.

Simply, dollars sent abroad to purchase oil and consumer goods from China, that don't return to purchase U.S. exports are lost purchasing power. Consequently, the U.S. economy is expanding at 2 percent a year instead of the 5 percent pace that is possible after emerging from a deep recession and with such high unemployment.

Without prompt efforts to produce more domestic oil, redress the trade imbalance with China, relax burdensome business regulations, and curb health care mandates and costs, the U.S. economy cannot grow and create enough jobs.

(Peter Morici is a professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

.


Related Links
The Economy






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








POLITICAL ECONOMY
U.S. faces World Bank nomination deadline
Washington (UPI) Mar 22, 2012
U.S. President Barack Obama faces a Friday deadline to nominate a convincing candidate for the World Bank presidency amid signs emerging-market member countries are set to push for a candidate of their own. The Obama administration could have started the campaign to win global approval for its nominee, but didn't. Now it faces the challenge of coming up with someone prominent enough to ... read more


POLITICAL ECONOMY
Russia warns it may target US missile shield

Russia warns of 'dead end' in US missile talks

Raytheon's JLENS and Patriot systems prove integration in intercept test

US shows no sign of compromise over missile shield

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Safran announces the creation of Herakles, merging SME and SPS

Israeli helicopters get missile shield

London apartment block set to host missiles for Olympics

N. Korea 'missiles' at parade were mock-ups: experts

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Indra launches UAV; market growth forecast

Boeing Provides First Tactical Cross-domain Capabilities for Predator Reaper RPV

Lockheed Martin's Shadow Hawk Munition Launched from Shadow UAS for the First Time

Camcopter S-100 First UAS Ever to Fly from an Italian Navy Ship

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Fourth Boeing-built WGS Satellite Accepted by USAF

Raytheon to Continue Supporting Coalition Forces' Information-Sharing Computer Network

Northrop Grumman Wins Contract for USAF Command and Control Modernization Program

TacSat-4 Enables Polar Region SatCom Experiment

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Citing safety, two F-22 pilots refuse to fly: report

Lockheed Martin Delivers Final, Historic F-22 Raptor To USAF

Lockheed Martin to Deliver New C-130J Training Technology

First Launch Successful Under RSA IIA's Mission Flight Control Center

POLITICAL ECONOMY
US military orders troops to fall in line after misconduct

Australia orders more Carl-Gustaf ammo

Tata signs deal with Malaysia's Deftech

Australia delays fighter jet project to save money

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Row over dissident threatens broader China-US ties

China defense minister to visit US

Outside View: What might go right

China violated Indian airspace in March: minister

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Nanotech gets boost from nanowire decorations

Single nanomaterial yields many laser colors

Creating nano-structures from the bottom up

Notre Dame paper examines nanotechnology-related safety and ethics problem




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement