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TRADE WARS
US trade gap narrows in wake of Japan disaster
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) June 9, 2011

Japan consumer confidence: first rise in 4 months
Tokyo (AFP) June 9, 2011 - Japanese consumer confidence rose in May from the previous month for the first time in four months after plunging in the wake of March's earthquake, tsunami and an ongoing nuclear crisis. The Cabinet Office's consumer sentiment index was up 1.1 points to a seasonally adjusted 34.2 after falling at the fastest pace on record in April to a two-year low of 33.1. Readings below 50 indicate pessimism outweighing optimism. Although sales of water and food surged as people stockpiled immediately after the quake and the nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, a mood of self restraint has hit spending in areas such as entertainment and travel.

Japan's consumer confidence has remained below its pre-financial crisis levels and retail sales slumped last year after government subsidies for car purchases were withdrawn and incentives to purchase appliances were reduced. The economy plunged into a technical recession after the quake and tsunami devastated infrastructure and manufacturing facilities in the northeast and left nearly 24,000 dead or missing in Japan's worst crisis since World War II. Separate data on Thursday showed the economy shrank by an annualised 3.5 percent in January-March, slightly less than a May estimate of a 3.7 percent contraction.

The US trade deficit shrank sharply in April as exports hit a record high and imports fell, reflecting the impact of Japan's earthquake-tsunami disaster, official data showed Thursday.

The Commerce Department reported the trade deficit in goods and services fell to a seasonally adjusted $43.7 billion from $46.8 billion in March. That was the smallest gap in the year to date.

But the politically sensitive shortfall with China widened to $21.6 billion, almost 20 percent more than the March level.

The overall deficit, which had been bigger than expected in March, surprised analysts whose consensus estimate was $48.7 billion.

"It was nice to see the trade gap narrow but most of that came from problems with Japan's supply chain, so don't expect the improvement to continue," said Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisers.

US exports rose 1.3 percent in April to a record $175.6 billion, led by exports of industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, consumer goods and travel services, the department said.

The strength of exports suggests that global demand is holding up well in the face of the rising cost of food and energy, said Aaron Smith at Moody's Analytics.

"With export orders still looking pretty strong, the dollar weak, and commodity prices off their highs, there is good reason to expect strong export growth to continue, albeit at a slightly reduced pace," Smith said.

Imports slipped 0.4 percent from March, to $219.2 billion. The decline was notably solid given that the prices of US imports rose 2.2 percent, according to the data.

High oil prices continued to weigh on the US trade balance, but surprisingly, the US reduced its net petroleum import bill by 27 percent, by boosting exports and cutting imports as crude prices soared in April on the back of uprisings in Arab countries.

Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, warned that the monthly drop in the petroleum deficit was "unsustainable."

The April trade report reflected supply disruptions from Japan's March 11 earthquake-tsunami disaster, with imported automobiles and auto parts tumbling 12.9 percent from the prior month. Those from Japan fell by more than a half from March.

The trade gap with Japan, the fourth-largest US trading partner, shrank to its lowest level since January 2010: $3.6 billion.

With the country's largest trade partner, Canada, the deficit shrank slightly to $2.5 billion.

The deficit also narrowed with the 17-nation eurozone, to $7.0 billion.

Still, the US trade imbalance was trending upward. Based on the Commerce Department's three-month moving average, which helps to smooth monthly volatility, the April deficit was 10 percent higher than a year ago.

Analysts noted that the April improvement in the trade balance would be an additional boost to economic growth in the second quarter.

Gross domestic product growth slowed to a sluggish 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter and recent data has shown raised alarms that the recovery begun two years ago is losing traction.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke warned this week there had been a "loss of momentum" in the already tepid US jobs market, where unemployment rose to 9.1 percent last month.

"The current recovery is less vigorous than we would like," he said in a speech to bankers in Atlanta, Georgia.

The latest jobless claims numbers from the Labor Department Thursday reinforced that gloomy outlook. Initial claims for insurance benefits rose last week, above economists' forecasts.




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Canada's trade deficit doubles
Ottawa (AFP) June 9, 2011 - Canada posted an unexpectedly larger trade deficit of CAN$924 million ($944 million US) in April, twice the amount registered in the previous month, a government agency announced Thursday.

Exports decreased 1.9 percent to CAN$36.3 billion while imports fell 0.6 percent to CAN$37.2 billion, Statistics Canada said.

The trade plunge was led by the automotive sector which was "adversely affected by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March," it said. Canada's machinery and equipment sector and goods and materials sector also posted declines.

Exports to the United States, however, increased for the second month in a row, edging up 0.3 percent to CAN$26.9 billion. Imports from Canada's largest trading partner increased 1.7 percent to CAN$23.1 billion in April, "reaching their highest level since November 2008."

Consequently, Canada's trade surplus with the United States narrowed from CAN$4.2 billion in March to CAN$3.9 billion in April.

Overall, Canada's exports of aircraft, engines and parts fell 38.5 percent in April. The nation also exported much less gold and silver, and smelter shutdowns in Japan and a decrease in demand from China cut exports of copper in ores.

Moderating the decline of precious metal and alloy sales abroad was an increase in exports of nickel in ores.

A 9.9 percent increase in exports of agricultural and fishing products, meanwhile, was led by canola and other crude vegetable products.





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