Russia's actions in the former Soviet republic of Georgia in August 2008 lasted briefly, but they were enough to create a prototype lockout scenario.

The Russian Northern Caucasus military district had nearly 300 fighter aircraft: 105 Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29s, 30 Sukhoi Su-24s, 59 Sukhoi Su-27s and 100 Sukhoi Su-25s. Add in the now common SA-20 surface-to-air missile with its fire-control range of 75 miles, and it would have been possible to layer enough air defenses to make reconnaissance nearly impossible. Even the high-flying Global Hawk might not be able to evade top-line Russian air defenses every time.

An airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance lockout over Iran would put the United States and the international community in a very uncomfortable position. One potential solution is deployment of the Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptor to signal the potential to hold surface-to-air missile systems at risk.

Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance lockout is also imminent over Iran. Reports from summer 2008 suggested that the Islamic Republic of Iran was awaiting delivery of the SA-20, and could have operational systems by the end of 2009. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates remarked on July 9, 2008, that Iran would not get the SA-20s "any time soon," but a senior U.S. defense official quickly clarified that the time period indicated was "months."

Beyond this, several scenarios are possible, and all show the need for the F-22 Raptor's contribution to conventional deterrence.

One of the most vexing, near-term scenarios would be F-22 deployment to support action over Iran.

Two factors are at work. First is the strengthening of Iran's air defenses that threaten lockout. Second, recent intelligence reports have estimated that the period of vulnerability for Iran to develop nuclear weapons would be around the year 2015.

Stern words have had little impact to date. "The international community cannot allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons," wrote U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Zalmay Khalilzad on March 4, 2008, in The Wall Street Journal.

Half a year later, nothing had changed. Iran is "determined to develop nuclear weapons at this point," said Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, as reported in The Washington Post on Oct. 28, 2008.

Definitive signs of weapons deployment by a bellicose regime in Iran might lead to a decision in favor of pre-emptive, multinational action.

(Part 7: What makes the F-22 unique in its tactical capabilities)

(Rebecca Grant, Ph.D., is a senior fellow of the Lexington Institute, a non-profit public-policy research organization based in Arlington, Va.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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