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Australia submarine blow forces French soul-searching
Paris, Sept 16 (AFP) Sep 16, 2021
France faces daunting questions on how to advance its strategic priorities in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, after traditional allies the US, UK and Australia teamed up without it.

Although the three countries' announcement of a defence alliance has caused shockwaves across Europe, France has been particularly stung because a multibillion-dollar deal to supply Australia with a submarine fleet has now been ripped up.

The US will instead supply Australia with a nuclear-powered fleet -- provoking a blunt reaction from France.

Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said the submarine deal was a "stab in the back" from Australia and accused the administration of US President Joe Biden of "unilateral, sudden and unforeseeable" behaviour that recalled the Donald Trump era.

"The decision could prompt a rethink in Paris about strategic partnerships with the anglosphere," said Herve Lemahieu, research director at Australia's Lowy Institute.

Since 2018, Macron has pursued diplomatic, military and trade ties across the Indo-Pacific, helped by France's territories of New Caledonia and French Polynesia.

It has deepened defence relations with Japan as well as India, with New Delhi recently buying 36 Rafale fighter jets from France.

France has no desire to see itself and other European nations sidelined as US President Joe Biden moves more aggressively to counter Beijing's regional ambitions.

Yet Paris was told only at the last minute that Australia would team up with Washington to secure nuclear-powered subs.

It marks only the second time the US has shared the game-changing technology with another country, after Britain.


- 'Big blow' -


Anne Cizel, a specialist in American foreign policy at the Sorbonne university in Paris, said the row was a "minor diplomatic crisis".

"The United States is sending a curious message, in that it wants European allies present in the Indo-Pacific, and at the same time it is now the main rival for French submarines sales," she said.

"It confirms the fact that the United States expects its allies to remain docile, and is no longer interested in consultation," said Thomas Gomart, director of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

Protective of its own atomic sovereignty, France had no intention of selling nuclear subs to Australia, analysts said.

That effectively ruled out any participation by Paris in the new AUKAS pact.

The alliance also shows other Indo-Pacific players that Europe will not be a major force to be reckoned with if the military stakes with China get higher.

"We can have a role in times of peace for preventing a conflict, but the day when conflict comes Europeans won't have the capacity, and they won't for several years still," said Antoine Bondaz at France's Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).

"It's a very big blow," Bondaz said, but one that shouldn't stop Macron from imploring EU allies to realise the importance of ensuring free access to the Indo-Pacific and its key global shipping lanes.

Macron has repeatedly said that Europe needs to develop its own defence capabilities to be less reliant on the US. But such a vision will need the strong support of Germany, which faces political uncertainty as Chancellor Angela Merkel exits power in this month's elections.

"Paris should look for other partnerships, with Indonesia or South Korea for example," said Bondaz.

"Australia remains a key partner in the South Pacific, and you can't change geography."

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